Friday, November 19, 2010

Guesstimates on November 19, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1183-1197. I am still expecting another down leg which will carry into the 1130-1150 zone. Once that drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro should find support at 133.00 and the move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

December Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

3 comments:

TMG2010 said...

Carl,
Would u please provide us ur insight to the reason u feel that the S&P will drop to 1150-1130 range before the move toward 1300 and also let us know some insight into when these targets might happen. Again thanks so much for ur site.

Kishore said...

With all the complicated terms like Quantitative Easing, we seem to lose sight of simple things like ABC!

The simple fact is abuse of power by the banks has ruined the world, including US.

The French will be doing a bank run on Dec 7. This should set an example for US, on how to neutralize the power of the banks with a "silent revolution", including eliminating the FED.

FED is just a misnomer of a central bank. Even their name is fraudulent!

Ron R said...

TMG- you can see a later postings Carl's last daily chart. In that post is highlighted " Carl's Charts" and in those charts, which are updated daily, you can see the support and resitance levels he refers to. 1200 seems resistance with first support at 1184. If you count days it takes up to these levels you can then count how many possible down days there could be. Howver, ususally, markets fall quicker than they rise.