Monday, November 01, 2010
Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. As you can see the market has been trading sideways for nearly three weeks now, a very unusual situation. I think this sideways action is about to end. My best guess is that the market will drop to the green trend line I have drawn. This is at roughly the 1175 level now. After that I expect a strong move that will take the ES above its April top at 1216.
I think the likely election results have already been priced into the market. But I think the major uncertainty now won't be resolved until 2:15 pm on Wednesday when the Fed announces the results of its meeting. If it shows determination to continue quantitative easing until normal economic growth is restored I expect the a positive response from the market. Anything less would probably kick off a substantial break.