(Tried to post this a couple minutes ago, but blogger hung)
I believe your NY Times headlines work well in bull markets. But during the last bear, didn't they give false signals all the way down, as Laurence mentions in his post?
Once this bull tops (maybe it already topped in May or maybe one more push up), then won't we have one after another doom and gloom article by the major press that will "signal" the bottom, only to have markets continue lower and lower until the bear expires one or two years out?
So if that is true, then it seems you'd need to modify your contrarian approach as follows:
1) In bull markets, very bearish media articles usually mark short term and IT bottoms--bottoms that should be bought. 2) In BEAR markets, very bullish media articles might mark short term tops and IT tops--tops that should be shorted.
4 comments:
Carl I am buying SPY at this level hope you are right
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is off the charts bullish
5 day $CPCE at its highest levels since this bull market began back in March 2009.
This summer rally should be a doozy.
It seems we had countless headlines like this in '08 and early '09 and yet the market kept dropping.
(Tried to post this a couple minutes ago, but blogger hung)
I believe your NY Times headlines work well in bull markets. But during the last bear, didn't they give false signals all the way down, as Laurence mentions in his post?
Once this bull tops (maybe it already topped in May or maybe one more push up), then won't we have one after another doom and gloom article by the major press that will "signal" the bottom, only to have markets continue lower and lower until the bear expires one or two years out?
So if that is true, then it seems you'd need to modify your contrarian approach as follows:
1) In bull markets, very bearish media articles usually mark short term and IT bottoms--bottoms that should be bought.
2) In BEAR markets, very bullish media articles might mark short term tops and IT tops--tops that should be shorted.
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