Today is Martin Armstrong day. It is the day that Armstrong predicted would see the low point in economic confidence which would start dropping in February of 2007, just 8 months before the bull market top in the Dow and S&P in 2007 and the actual beginning of big trouble in the financial stocks and banking sector.I should say that at the moment Armstrong himself is very bearish on the economy and the stock market. He thinks unemployment is headed for 20% from its current level of 9 %. But his cycle forecast shows an upswing from the June 13, 2011 low which lasts for the next two years and for three of the next four years, bringing the cycle line back to its 2007 high.
I think his forecast, interpreted as a forecast of investor psychology, will prove to be correct. At the moment I think Armstrong's very bearish views show that he has become a part of the phenomenon he forecast rather than standing apart from it.
7 comments:
Thanks for you insights. I learned a lot since i discover this blog. Keep the good work.
And there are too many bears out there... which supports your vision.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
This are my charts that coincide with your vision.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/714/silverdy.jpg/
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/402/sp5004hoursdivergence.jpg/
midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com
(i will add your precious blog to my blogroll)
Great. Now that Martin Armstrong is out of jail (after serving time for defrauding investors), he can go back to the business of making predictions.
Martins 2007.15 date NAILED the top in the XLF.
If you look at the XLF now over the last 8 months it has been completing one of the most bullish stock market patterns there is....the "rounding top" formation.
Post-rounding tops are typically a strong rally. With rates likely going up that would make sense that banks lending margins and profits would increase.
XLF looks like a nice buy here on this Armstrong date.
Carl,
My question: who is willing to buy our treasuries? QE2 and POMO ending. China ain't buying anymore and FED's ain't doing QE3..right now anyway.
Who or what is gonna drive this market higher?
Just my op.
Jack
It is interesting to see that a true blue bull like Carl will somehow find from wherever and whatever it is that suits his so-called vision and call it "evidence"! This kind of "vision" is called blind faith, and not logical analysis.
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