Guesstimates on March 30, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1400-1413. I think the drop from 1419 is over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower. Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.

target 1440

Here is a weekly bar chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to the 2007 bull market top. The next obvious upside target for the S&P in this bull market is not far away at 1440. The red dash line is at the level of the May 2008 top which was 1442 and thus a resistance level above the market. If the rally from the October 2011 low matches the size of the July 2010-May 2011 rally it would end at 1438 (blue dash rectangles).

But what happens after 1440? I don't see any sign yet that the technical condition of the rally is weakening. The bull market's leading stocks, right now technology, housing, and bank stocks, are still pulling the averages up. Foreign stock markets are for the most part in obvious up trends. There are no divergences among these various sectors that I can see. And until such divergences begin to appear I think the longer term trend will remain up.

This means that the S&P 500 is likely to reach the level of its 2007 bull market top of 1576 during the next 12 months or so.

Guesstimates on March 29, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1389-1402. I think the drop from 1419 is nearly over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.

Guesstimates on March 28, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1402-1413. The next level to watch is the May 2007 top at 1442. I expect the ES to reach that level in the next week or two.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: So far the Euro has spent two days trading above 1.3300 resistance. A third day would convince me that the market is headed for 1.3570 before resuming its down trend. Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.

Guesstimates on March 27, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1407-1421. I think yesterday's rally represented a break above resistance. The next level to watch is the May 2007 top at 1442. I expect the ES to reach that level in the next week or two.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: Yesterday the Euro spent most of its session trading above resistance at 1.3300. I think the market will soon move back down below there, but if I am wrong the next stop on the upside will be 1.3570.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 26, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1395-1408. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range and I think it will remain in a 1375-1410 trading range for a while.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 23, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1385-1394. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range. I now expect a trading range with a low near 1375 to form. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 22, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1384-1395. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range. I now expect a trading range with a low near 1375 to form. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – Junel Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 21, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1393-1404. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range. I now expect a trading range with a low near 1375 to form. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – Junel Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

stronger economic growth ahead

Here is a daily chart of the US 10 year treasury note yield. It is sending a very important message.

During the past several months the 10 year note yield has been at historically low levels, even lower than during the Great Depression. Contrary to popular belief, low yields reflect very weak economic conditions and a monetary policy that has been too tight to allow growth of nominal GDP at historically average levels of 5% per year. US nominal GDP growth has averaged about 2% during the past three years. The Fed has not been doing its job, largely for political reasons.

However you can see on the chart that the 10 year yield last week staged a breakout from a narrow five month trading range. It has even taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is the start of a rally in yield which will take the market back to its 2011 high yield at 3.75% (green dash line).

This means that the market is now expecting higher levels of nominal GDP growth going forward than we have seen during the past 3 years. If the Fed keeps the funds rate as low as it has promised over the next couple of years, higher levels of GDP growth will force the Fed to provide more and more liquidity to the market to keep short rates low. This will not only accommodate high growth rates but will raise them.

So I think the market is telling us that a strong, sustained recovery in the US economy lies ahead, a recovery that is likely to lower the unemployment rate dramatically over the next three years. If the treasury note market is reading the tea leaves correctly much high stock prices lie ahead.

Guesstimates on March 20, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1390-1402. The rally from the March 6 low reached resistance in the1405-15 range. I now expect a trading range with a low near 1375 to form. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – Junel Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme adn that AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 19, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1388-1398. The rally from the March 6 low is getting close to resistance in the 1405-1415 range. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's upside run last week was extreme and I think AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 16, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1394-1404. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. If so it is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's upside run during the past three days has been extreme and I think AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 15, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1384-1397. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415 with normal interruptions along the way.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): Yesterday the 10 year yield broke out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. If so it is telling us that the US economy is about to experience higher growth rates than currently expected. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Overnight AAPL has traded as high as 599, just shy of the 605 resistance level. The market's upside run during the past three days has been extreme and I think AAPL will now trade sideways for a while. Support is now at 575.

breakout

Here is a weekly bar chart of the cash S&P 500. Over the past few days this average has moved above its 2011 high and joined the Dow and the Nasdaq at new highs for the move up from the 2009 low point.

I think this is a genuine breakout which is likely to be followed by a move in the S&P back to its 2007 high points.Here are my reasons for optimism.

First, I see no divergences among the stocks and sectors which have been leading the averages upward from their October 2011 low points. In particular, banks and home builders are showing persistent strength as is the tech sector led by Apple (AAPL), this bull market's leading stock. Until such divergences begin to appear this advance will remain on solid ground.

Second, the British, French, and German stock markets are all strong and making new highs for the move up from their September 2011 low points. They have not yet moved above their 2011 highs. But weakness in the euro currency against the dollar shows that the European central bank is providing plenty of liquidity. As long as the euro continues its drop against the dollar (I think it is headed below 1.2600) the north European bull market should continue. This in turn means that an EU banking crisis is no longer a danger, a possibility that weighed heavily on stock markets world wide last year.

Third, the Japanese central bank has committed itself to a positive inflation target and is doing its best to devalue the yen against the dollar. I think they will be successful and expect the see the dollar/yen at or above 90.00 in the coming months. This provision of yen liquidity will have positive economic repercussions for the world economy.

Finally, the Fed appears to be committed to keeping the Federal funds rate low for the next couple of years. I think this is an admission of failure and a manifestation of its unwillingness to aggressively encourage higher nominal GDP growth in the US. However, if the Fed is serious about maintaining this target higher-than-expected growth in the US economy will have the effect of producing "back door" quantitative easing. This will occur because the Fed's announced target rate will be too low relative to the higher levels of US growth I see coming and consequently the Fed will have to provide more and more liquidity to keep the funds rate where it is now.

Looking at the chart above you can see two sets of rectangles. The pair of blue rectangles shows that the S&P would rally to 1440 if the move up from the October 2011 low matches the size of the July 2010 to May 2011 rally. If the move up from the October 2011 low matches the size of the March 2009 to April 201 rally (red rectangles) it will end with the S&P a little above 1600. The 1600 target is a bit above the 2007 top at 1576 and stands at the upper green trend line I have drawn. The green oval delineates my current target for this bull market.

Guesstimates on March 14, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1382-1396. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415 with normal interruptions along the way.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Overnight AAPL reached resistance at 575. I expect a stall here and probably a drop to 545. After that the next upside target will be 605.

Guesstimates on March 13, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1368-1378. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415 with normal interruptions along the way.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25. .

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is headed for its next upside target at 575. Support is at 520.

Guesstimates on March 12, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the June contract is 1361-1371. The price action of the last three days now looks to me like the kick off phase of a bigger rally which should take the ES to 1415 or so.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25. .

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I have changed my view on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.

Guesstimates on March 9, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the June contract is 1360-1371. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I have changed my view on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.

Guesstimates on March 8, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1357-1367. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.

Guesstimates on March 7, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1340-1352. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL has bounced off 545 resistance. Support is at 518. Next upside target is 575.

to 1310 then up

Here is a daily bar chart of the March 2012 ES going back to the October 4, 2011 low.

As I have explained in previous posts there is strong resistance near 1375 for two reasons. First, the 2011 high on May 2 of that year was 1373.50 (red dash line). Second, a rally from the November 25, 2011 low which matched the size of the October 2011 rally would have ended at 1366 (large blue dash rectangles).

Today's price action looks like a downside breakout from a small trading range which had formed during the past two weeks. I think it means that the ES is headed for the dash green trendline. A more precise estimate of the upcoming break is the size of the drop in early December which was about 71 points. That gives a downside target of 1306 (small blue dash rectangles).

I think this is only a normal correction in an ongoing bull market. There is still the possibility that the ES is forming the top of a domed house (see this post) but if so it still should rally above its recent 1377 top before the top is complete. A more bullish prospect is that there is no ongoing 3 peaks and a domed house formation and that instead the market is headed for its 2007 top at 1587.

Guesstimates on March 6, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1350-1362. The rally from the November 25 low has matched the size of the October 2011 rally and has also carried the market to its May 2011 top. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL has bounced off 545 resistance. Support is at 518. Next upside target is 575.