Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Guesstimates on May 14, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is again 1629-1640. The market has moved through its long term resistance zone of 1546-87. A drop of 30-40 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will now be support. I am putting aside my 10% break scenario for the time being since I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has traded below it 20 day moving average for three days now but I see the 1.2920 level as good support. I still think that a swing to 1.40 is underway.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  The market is back below 1465 resistance. I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG should make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.


mike said...

Carl, is the doomed house pattern now invalid? Or do you have to adjust the time line from where it was before? Thanks again for your comments , Mike

Carl Futia said...

read this post: