Thursday, May 16, 2013

Guesstimates on May 16, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1648-1660. A drop of 30-60 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will now be support. I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading below it 20 day moving average and this morning has spent a day below 1.2920. The market traded sideways yesterday so I am going to give it another day or two to see if it doesn’t climb back above that level. If it doesn’t  I will conclude that it is headed down to 1.2400.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG has reached and exceeded the 900 target. Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

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