Monday, May 20, 2013

Guesstimates on May 20, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1657-1668. I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops is now support. The next upside target is 1775.  
QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target. Next upside target is 76.50.    
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading below it 20 day moving average and has spent a couple of days below 1.2920 support. At this juncture I have to conclude that the market is headed below its April 4 low at 1.2744. Downside target is now 1.24oo
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG has reached and exceeded the 900 target. Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

1 comment:

Rob said...

I posted two or three weeks ago that I thought my long-term positive/negative numbers had to get up to at least 11 times money on the positive side versus the negative side before we reached a top. That was a correct statement. I also said I thought we were close. That was incorrect. My numbers are no closer now than they were back two or three weeks ago. What I'm seeing is the shorts are not giving up. My negative numbers have been static for months. We'll reach a top when they finally throw in the towel, which will come sooner or later.