Wednesday, May 08, 2013

Guesstimates on May 8, 2013



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1611-1624. The market has moved through its long term resistance zone of 1546-87. A drop of 30-40 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will now be support. I am putting aside my 10% break scenario for the time being since I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Headed for 73.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. The dollar-yen has been stalling beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96. The next leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  The market has started to spend time above 1465 which means that it is probably headed back to breakout resistance at 1520-30. Downside target is still 1200-50.
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG held well above support at 747, its 2007 top, during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.

4 comments:

nikdan said...

so, the last bear died...
we are all bulls...
is this a good sign for bulls;;;;;

Kishore said...

nikdan, calling Carl "the last bear" is grossly unfair. Maybe, you have not known him long enough?

Kelly Blaine said...

Market action subsequent to QQQ making its expected price target of 72.72 will be inverse to the price action subsequent to SPX hitting the well documented 666.

nikdan said...

Kishore

the last bear, for now...
even nouriel roubini believes that the markets are only bullish, for now again...