Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Guesstimates on May 15, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1642-1655. A drop of 30-40 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will now be support. I am putting aside my 10% break scenario for the time being since I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading below it 20 day moving average and this morning has dropped below support at 1.2920. If the market spends a day below the latter level I will conclude that it is headed down to 1.2400.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG should make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

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