Tuesday, May 07, 2013

Guesstimates on May 7, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1613-1622. The market has moved through its long term resistance zone of 1546-87. A couple of more days trading above 1587 and I will have to abandon my 10% break scenario. QQQ:  Headed for 73.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. However the market is likely to stall for a few weeks beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  The market has started to spend time above 1465 which means that it is probably headed back to breakout resistance at 1520-30. Downside target is still 1200-50.
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG held well above support at 747, its 2007 top, during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.


Bill said...

What has happened to the US market is the same thing that's going on with Japan. QE infinity seems to take the teeth out of any correction. Both Japan and the US have been going up in one direction only, that is up. The most we are seeing is sideways corrections and 2% to 3% drops, and this may continue to be the case until such time as QE is discontinued. Now if QE can have such a powerful effect, we need to brace for the unwinding of QE, even Warren Buffett said yesterday he wouldn't know how to do it. This is right now the challenge, how do you unwind QE and let interest rates rise without decimating housing and the stock market. There is no precendent in history to this QE infinitnity, this is why Doug Kass, Sam Stovall, and yourself have been predicting a correction that never came to fruition.

Tim- said...

to unwind it you can hold it to maturity or just sell it for a loss and the difference between the price paid and price sold is the amount of money that becomes profit to market participants, for the economy, what was credit becomes printed money.

mike said...

provided without additonal comment...marketwatch headline "housing on fire ..and article on flipping houses... brokeage firm running ad with its margin rates in the WSJ...hummmmm