Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Guesstimates on September 11, 2013



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate is 1672-1682. The ES traded well above its 50 day moving average yesterday and the advance-decline line took a peek above its 50 day moving average too. Only the Dow is trading below its 50 day moving average. So for the time being we have more evidence that the trend is up from the August 26 low and that the ES is headed above 1705.
QQQ:  Upside target is 86.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has broken support at 1.3200 and this makes it likely that the market is headed down to 1.2800. The 20 day moving average is at 1.3285 and I’ll stick with this bearish forecast just so long as the market does not trade for two days above this moving average.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
October Crude:  Crude has sagged back below 108 but as long as it holds its 50 day moving average at 103.54 I will stick with my 123 upside target.
December Gold:  Yesterday December gold closed below 1365 so I conclude that the market is now headed below 1200.
December Silver: The market has reached resistance near 24.00 and will probably stall here before the bear market resumes.  
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  The 460 level is now support and as long as it holds I think AAPL will continue its rally to 560 or so.

1 comment:

Bruno h said...

Carl, how about your concern on the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio (refer your post of 05/09). Do you expect a serious pull back first before heading over 1705?