Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Guesstimates on September 25, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate for the December contract is 1681-194. The ES, the Dow and the advance-decline line are all still trading above their 50 day moving averages. As long as this remains true the trend is definitely upward and will likely carry the ES to 1775 or higher during the next couple of months
QQQ:  Upside target is 86.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
November Crude:  Crude has spent two consecutive days trading entirelyh below its 50 day moving average and in the process has put in the biggest break since the April 2013 low. I now think crude is headed back to that low at 86 and possibly lower than that.
December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.
December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385. In the meantime I will maintain my bullish stance.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
it looks to me like oct 15th - 18th should be a turn date for the market
and my bias is that will be a Low .
My reasoning comes from the us dollar index multiplied by the dow as example yet it can be seen using the indexes also just not as clearly . a top on may 22 another top on july 10th was the high to high and projected a low on aug 28th . these were 35 trading days apart adding 35 trading days i get oct 16th . looking at the decennial pattern i averaged out
several years ending in 3 and the market has been following the guide very closely this year .
this swing high was due on sept 17th which was 1 day off . Today
it is calling for a low followed by a sideways move for a few days
with an upward bias into oct 8-10th followed by a low which is due oct 18th . ( similar times )
looking at the Dow alone we have a high on may 22 another high on aug 2 ( 51 trade days ) adding 51 trade days to aug 2 i get oct 15th .thats another high to high to low count . the pattern appears to be a sideways movement. i guess your could call it a running triangle since we are seeing higher high's and higher lows with in it .
there is also a 45 trade day low to low to low theme setting up which would end on oct29-30th , a higher low perhaps ?
april 19 low june 24 low aug 27th low OCT 29 ? Low ?.
If all this holds true we would bottom in mid to late October and rally into jan 24th 2014 .
Years ending in 4 tend to be consolidations ( bearish but nothing extreme ) Next year looks to be a difficult market.
15078 looks like a reasonable target for a low in the dow in mid October. a break below 14900 would cause me concern about my bullish outlook .
Good luck