Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Guesstimates on September 4, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1623-39.  The ES is headed back to its June 24 low as 1553.
QQQ:  If the market starts accepting prices below 75 it is headed back down to 69 or lower.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % has been reached but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has spent a day trading below support at 1.3200. A drop below 1.3130 today would mean that this support has been broken and would make it likely that the market is headed down to 1.2800.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
October Crude:  Crude has sagged back below 108 but as long as it holds its 50 day moving average at 103.54 I will stick with my 123 upside target.
December Gold:  Resistance stands in the 1425-50 zone. So far the market has stopped at 1434. Weakness below 1380 would mean that a move down to 1200 or below is underway.  
December Silver: The market has reached resistance near 24.00 and will probably stall here before the bear market resumes.  
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  The 460 level is now support and as long as it holds I think AAPL will continue its rally to 560 or so.

1 comment:

Rob said...

My long/short numbers would support your call that we're going lower. I believe we need to get down somewhere in the range of 2.0 times money on the long side versus the short side to reach a low. The number at the low at the end of June was 2.15. We had an all-time high number of 16.89 on August 14. Since then the lowest we've gotten is 8.21. We were at a very, very high 10.51 this past Friday. Nowhere near a low.