Wednesday, January 11, 2006
This morning I thought that the bond market was in good shape and would stage a final rally which would end the up move from the November 4 low.
Today the March T-bond futures closed below support at 113-12. Since I think we are in a bear market I have to conclude that the 115-00 high on December 30 was the top of the rally from the 110-12 low of November 4 (in the December '05 contract).
I think this market is now headed below 108. The hourly chart above this post shows what I think is the likely path of short term fluctuations. There should be temporary support near 112-24 but the rally from there is not likely to carry past 114-00.