Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Guesstimates on January 18 , 8:50 am ET

March S&P Futures: The market has reached support at 1279. I still see no sign that the drop from 1301 has ended so another 10 points down to 1269 is still a 50-50 bet. In any case the next significant development will be a rally to 1320. The market should reach the 1350 level in a couple of months.

March Bonds: The bonds made new rally highs at 115-13 on the CPI news this morning but I think the market is about to turn lower and drop into the 107-108 zone. In fact I suspect that 115-13 was the high tick.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes made a new rally high at 110-06 this morning but I think the market is about to turn lower and head down to 105 or so.

Cash Eurocurrency: The market should rally into the 121.80 to 122.20 zone. That should end the move up from 116.39.

March Crude: There is a very high probability that this morning’s high of 67.50 marked the end of the rally from 57.00 and that the market will now head down to 62.00 and then to 57.00.

February Gold: A move down to 470 is underway.

March Silver: A move down to 750 is underway.

Google: Support is at 450 and I see no sign that the bull market in GOOG is over. Next upside target is 495.

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