Friday, January 13, 2006

Guesstimates on January 13 , 8:50 am ET

March S&P Futures:  The market is stalling at short term resistance at 1298 but should hold support around 1287. From there it will rally to the next upside target at 1320 where it is likely to stall for a few days and react 20 points or so. The market should reach the 1350 level in a couple of months.  

March Bonds: I now believe that the December 30 top at 115-00 will hold and that the market is on its way to the 107-108 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 114-12.

March 10 Year Notes: It now looks like the 110-05 top on January 6 will hold and that the market is headed down to 105 or so. Resistance above the market is at 109-20.

March Eurocurrency: Support today is 121.00 and from there the market should rally into the 122.80 to 123.00 zone. That should end the move up from 116.61.

February Crude: The 64-65 zone is strong resistance and I think from there the market is headed for 56.50. I expect crude to trade in a range of $54 to $64 for several months before going much lower.

February Gold: I now think that gold has made a lower top and is on its way down to below 490.  

March Silver: I now think silver has made a lower top and is on its way to below 800.  

Google: GOOG has reached its short term upside target at 470. Support is at 450 and I see no sign that the bull market in GOOG is over. Next upside target is 495.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl, read your posts almost every day.

I suppose you quite stick to your method and dont look much for intermarket relationships or else, but i do (maybe too much), and what i see is that the markets are rising because of inflation.
In real terms nearly all the markets (including the Nikkei, the Dax...) are flat since 2003 at best.

So i have some difficulties buying into yours "gold headed to 490" and crude to 56.50 without the sp going down itself.

Just a heads up.
Keep up your good work.

LowTax said...

Carl, do you still feel gold has topped out or has today's rally made you switch back to $560?