Friday, September 01, 2006

Guesstimates on September 1, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Support is at 1299. The market will probably rally to 1315 or so, a little above my initial estimate of resistance in the 1309-12 zone. After that a 25 point break should develop. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: The market has gone about 10 ticks higher than I expected. Still I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24. Resistance is at 111-00.

December 10 Year Notes: The market will soon begin a move down to 105. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is still support and I expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way to 119.50. Support is at 116.30. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market dropped into the 68.00-69.00 zone Wednesday and I think the next significant development will be a rally into the 73-75 zone.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

December Silver: Switching to the December contract today. I am still short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards. After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.

Google: Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.

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