Friday, December 15, 2006

Guesstimates on December 15, 8:50 am ET

March S&P Futures: The S&P’s rallied into the 1443-45 resistance zone on the CPI news about 15 minutes ago. There is still no sign of even a 10 point break yet. Support below the market is at 1437 while the next resistance above the market is at 1455.

March Bonds: The bonds rallied on the CPI news right up to resistance at 113-18. I think the market will stall here and head lower.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes rallied on the CPI news but resistance is at 108-30. The market should stall there and then head lower.

Euro-US Dollar
: I think that a move to 116 and lower has begun. Resistance above the market is at 132.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think a move to 121 and ultimately to 130 has begun. Support stands at 117.40.

January Crude: Resistance above the market is at 63.25. I expect crude to drop to 57.50.

February Gold: Gold should rally to 662. Any weakness below 620 would cancel this prognosis and mean that an extended drop has begun.

March Silver: I think silver is headed for 1450-1460. After that I shall be expecting a drop below 940.

Google: Last January’s top at 475 is now support and I expect Google to resume its rally to 564.


Mike Roznowski said...


Really enjoyed your posts over the last few months. What are your thoughts on the below analog from 1993-1994 on the SPX?

If you look at a chart of the SPX from September 1993 - January 1994 it would seem to paint a similar picture to the position of the current market.

Specifically using 10/15/1993 as the current position of our market on 12/15/2006. Counting forward from the 10/15/93 date to the eventual top on 1/31/1994 was around 109 Calendar days.

If you count 109 days forward from 12/15/2006, you arrive at 4/01/2007 for an analagous top which is around your late March projection.

If the SPX behaves in a similar fashion to 1993/1994 over this 3 month period we should look for a move down to SPX 1377 in January, followed by a rally to our current highs, followed by another decline bottming around the 70-80 calendar day mark from 12/15/2006, follwed by one more move up of 30 days to complete the pattern above our current highs.

Anonymous said...


What were the reasons you used that particular time period in order to compare to the current time period?


Mike Roznowski said...

I went back and looked at prior time periods preceding 10%+ corrections in the SPX and late 1993/early 1994 looks to be the best "fit", for our current market.

Of course nothing is exact, but if we continue sideways/up into late March it will be a warning sign.