Tuesday, December 05, 2006

S&P Bull Market Boxes

Here is a weekly bar shart of the cash S&P 500 index showing the entire bull market thus far. This bull market started from a low at 768 in October 2002. I last commented on this chart here.

As you can see the market has reached the 1/2 point of the fourth box. For the past six months this has been my target for the end of the bull market. But as I have remarked in this post and in this one I still do not see any convincing sign that the move up from the June-July lows is complete. So my box theory says that the next stopping point for the index will be the top of the current box near 1511. I think we shall see this level sometime during the first quarter of 2007.


Anonymous said...

if 1511 is reached, that will be spitting distance from 1553. Will we see the all time high tested? perhaps this will coincide with a Nasdaq 2550 which would be half way thru the 4th box and half the all time high!

Anonymous said...

carl, my use of the cyclic analysis methods of jum hurst also suggest a target area of the 1500 in the 1st quarter.

douche bag said...

carl, good stuff ... see http://kachingo2006-5.blogspot.com/ for my ramblings. I've used one of your charts mainly for easy reference. Keep up the great work.