Tuesday, December 19, 2006

S&P Update

Here is an hourly chart of the March S&P e-mini futures which are trading about 12 points over the cash index. I commented on this market this morning.

The S&P's have rallied a little more than I expected. However they have reached 1437.50, the point at which longer time frame sellers took hold of the market yesterday, the high of the last red, wide range down bar. I expect these sellers to take advantage of this price again.

If I am right we shall soon see a drop into the 1416-18 range, especially since the rally from this morning's low already has a clear, three phase shape to it.

Any strength above 1438 and especially a close above that level would force me to abandon my "down to 1416-18" scenario. In any case I expect the market to advance to 1475 after this correction is complete.


matthews said...

I wonder what makes you change your view this morning after the first reaction to 1434. Is it because the market droped more than expected or the reaction is not as strong as you expected ? Clearly you see something I didn't see. Also could you recommend some trading related books you liked. Do you still remember any good books you read in the Berkeley library as I would like to check them out during lunch time.

matthews said...

Hi, Carl

Could you recommend some trading related books, thanks
Do you still remember any particular books you read in Berkeley library, I would like to check them out during lunch time.