Tuesday, December 19, 2006


Here is an hourly chart of the March S&P e-mini futures which are trading about 12 points above the cash index. I last commented on this market here.

Before the pit open this morning the market dropped well below the 1432-34 support zone. This means that I was mistaken when I identified the buyers on the wide range down bar late yesterday as longer time frame traders.

I now think that a break of 3-5 trading days and about 30 points has started. A 30 point break would be as big as the late November and late October drops in the S&P.

I also think that the market will trade in a range with low at 1423 and high in the 1433-35 zone over the next day or two. The rough pattern I envision can be seen on the chart. Late this week or early next a drop to 1416 or a little lower should develop and this will end the reaction from 1445.

Once this correction is complete I expect the S&Ps to rally to 1465.

1 comment:

Aurelien said...

The SP futures have climbed pretty quickly (45 mins) from the 1430 level to the 1437.5 level on strong volume before retracing somewhat. Is this enough to change your mind about this morning's prediction, or do you still think that the market will fall.
It seems to me that the market wants to go higher based on the strong volume through your 1433-35 resistence.

Also, I was wondering if you would be interested in commenting on Apple's direction. The stock has been going crazy lately.