Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Guesstimates on January 31, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P Futures: I expect the Spiders to rally to 145.00. The futures should move up to 1455.

QQQQ: The Q’s should now rally up to 47-48.

TLT - March Bonds: TLT should find support near 86.50. I expect the market to start a trading range in this vicinity which should be followed a rally to 94-95. The bonds should rally to 110-00 or so and then drop to 108-28. I think a basing process has begun that will be followed by a move above the 115 level.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached their downside target at 106-08. A rally to 106-24 is likely. After that the notes will probably drop to 105-28. I think the market has begun a basing process. After it is complete I expect a move to above the 110 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is likely to rally to 130.00 and then drop to its next support near 126.90.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 122.50. Support is at 119.80. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - March Crude: The oil market rallied sharply yesterday, contrary to my near term expectation. I think OIH will hold support at 132 and rally to 140 or so before dropping substantially. USO should hold support at 45 and rally to 49. Crude has nearly reached my 57.50 upside target. A drop to 54.00 from here would be normal but I think the market is likely to rally to 60.00 before resuming its bear market.

GLD - April Gold: GLD is still stalling in the 64.00 - 65.00 zone but the market shows no sign of aggressive selling. I now think it is headed for the 67-69 range before the bear market resumes. Switching to the April contract in gold. I think gold futures will rally to 675 and possibly to 690.

March Silver: I think silver is on its way up to 1395. From there the bear market should resume.

Google: A move up to 564 is underway. Support is at 485.


Anonymous said...

Thanks you for your continued excellent analysis.

I do have one question. What would it take to change your analysis calling for a decline of silver to the 9 price zone?


Anonymous said...

Could you include a comment on foreign stocks in your daily Guesstimates and occasionally a chart comment ? EFA might be a handy surrogate for doing so. There has been so much interest in the last several years in foreign stocks.

Thank you