Wednesday, January 03, 2007

S&P Late Update

Here are hourly charts of the March S&P futures and the Spiders. I last commented on these markets here.

As you can see it didn't take long for the bullish support I cited in my last post to evaporate. The futures have dropped as low as 1416.50 while I estimate support at 1416.00 or a tad lower. The Spiders have dropped as low as 140.57 while I estimate support at 140.40.

I think the big drop we have seen from today's highs is actually an exhaustion move rather than the start of a new downtrend. If I am right then we won't see much follow-through selling tomorrow and the support levels will hold.

If, contrary to my expectation, we see agressive selling below these support levels I think the worst the market will do on the downside is 1405. I would then regard this break as the opening phase of developing top with higher highs due later this month.

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