Friday, January 19, 2007

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the March S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

I still think the lows made yesterday in the S&P's and Spiders will hold. The bullish piece of evidence that attracts my attention is yesterday's wide range down bar after Bernanke's testimony. So far there has been no follow through selling and this tells me that longer time frame traders were buyers on that break. For this reason I am still expecting the S&P's to rally to 1455 and the Spiders to 144.40 over the next couple of weeks.

My "drop dead" level is illustrated in both charts by the dashed line which I have drawn at the levels of the last reaction low on the way up to the recent high. Weakness below the dashed line will mean that the market is headed back to its early January lows. Even then I would expect the early January lows to hold and would look for new bull market highs soon after.

The QQQQ's have been acting weaker than the S&P's after being stronger early in the year. The market has been trading around the 44.10 support level. I still expect a move up to 47.20 over the next couple of weeks.

No comments: