Friday, August 01, 2008

E-mini Update

I just sold at 1261.50 the e-mini's I bought earlier today at 1259. I don't like the fact that the market broke 7 points below what I thought would be support at 1260. I now will sell the rest of my longs on a close today below 1256. 

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

huh!!
so all the talk about 1500 SPX is bollocks?
Man, life is good as a forecaster

Anonymous said...

Do you think Carl, we will go lower next week or not?

Anonymous said...

Carl,

What say you...for much of the day the spx oscillated above/below 1260 and closed right on it..I've come to understand your box theory and the way in which you choose your limits...and my question is: Do you have a theory regarding the behavior of the market around support resistance lines, and can you explain it if possible.

Anonymous said...

Carl,
are you turning bearish now.
That means one of the last bulls
are now bearish and for
a contrarian it means bullish.
I hang in there and building my
long positions slowly.
Good trading from Down under

Anonymous said...

Carl: take a look at the 2002 pattern on either the DOW or SPX; can you see a correlation to todays market? Notice in 2002 we had a low around July 23..much like our recent low on July 20; market in 2002 ran up in Aug until the 16th...then down till Oct...looks like our market is doing the same thing?????

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

On 7/18 I posted that a close above 1242.40 would give me a buy signal. On that day I went long at 1245.00. On 7/21 I mentioned that the first of five upper level sell pressure points would be 1292.70 (give or take a few ticks), with no certainty that we even have to reach any of them. Well, we nearly reached that price when selling hit the market. It is clear that this same price pressure point is still active and has again fought back any price advance.

My model is now showing that a wall of selling pressure is now rapidly descending and moving closer to the current price. This presents a problem for the bulls. Prices must now close above these upper level price points before any further advances can be made and before any additional buy signals can be issued.

Market price MUST close above these currently upper level price points in order for any further advances to occur. Meanwhile, these price levels will continue to exert downward pressure on the market.

For each day this coming week, they are as follows:

Monday – 1298.60
Tuesday – 1292.40
Wednesday – 1285.80
Thursday – 1278.70
Friday – 1271.00

Prices must close above these price points on their respective day in order to issue a fresh buy signal. Meanwhile, I have close out my long position and have reinstated my short position until the above conditions are met.

Please note, we all realize that technical analysis is a windsock and not a crystal ball, so there are no guarantees when it comes to any forecast, I’m a trader and not a guru, but this is what my timing model is telling me now.

Thank you.

Kindest regards,

PM

Win said...

PM,

Thank you for your post. I appreciate your help. My work still shows 1220-1225 as the next target but I am curious about your daily levels. How do you arrive at them? I would appreciate even some tips with which I could begin.

Here is my reasoning: 1220-1225 is the confluence of two major price points: 1) 50% of 1200 and 1440, and 2) 1134 + 91 points. 1134 was a 38.2% retrace of the 91 point advance from 1200 to 1291.

Carl,

Anonymous said...

Dear Win,

I appreciate your interest in my calculations. I am happy to submit my general comments along with other posters here as long as Carl is cordial enough to post them.

However, please understand that the specific formulas to determine future buy and sell pressure points and/or buy and sell breakout points are proprietary and restricted. I will tell you that my work is based 100% in mathematics and physics, and that prices, as well as time, are monitored and tracked much the same as a physical moving object through space without the influence of gravity.

Thank you for your understanding.

Kindest regards,

PM

Win said...

Thanks, PM. I understand. I appreciate some of your quite specific comments here.

JavaGuru said...

PM and Win,

Please continue to post. I have a similar outlook and method. Let's keep in touch!

Regards,

John

Win said...

PM, Thank you again for your insightful post, as also for making me work a little. I am arriving at an understanding of your numbers and will continue to work with whatever you post. I am a newbie to TA, and learning a lot under Carl's and now your tutelage. I'd appreciate any books or sources you can recommend for further learning.

John,
Please share your thoughts as well. Thanks.

Win said...

Carl,

I studied a lot of charts today and I saw a lot of triangles. (See BKX for a particularly interesting one.) My understanding is that if we don't break out to the upside in the next two-three days (break 1280 and hopefully 1290), we are going down to a possible retest of 1200. (In which case BKX and IBB look very interesting.) I may of course be all wrong but that is what I see.

Low volume month ahead. Large swings may be normal.