Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Guesstimates on August 19, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1260.  From there a rally to 1340 or so is likely. I think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds broke past 117-16 resistance yesterday and are now headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes broke past 116-08 resistance and are now headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

A close below 1274.30 today in the September contract will give me a confirmed sell signal. I went short on a 1273.50 stop and was filled at that price.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

Anonymous said...

Now we are on the same page Carl. Bullish Stocks AND Bullish Treasuries! Its ultra low interest rates that will drive up the market! :)

Anonymous said...

PM,

what is your downside target from 1273.50?

Anonymous said...

Jose,

I never have any targets. If this sell signal is confirmed, then I will simply stay short until I get a buy signal. This sell signal could remain in effect for a day or two or for several weeks, I have no way of knowing. My model follows the market action, I never attempt to tell the market where it should go.

PM

Anonymous said...

Be very careful in this area traders...the S&P eminis are nearly oversold and have a possible backtest of the descending channel that it recently broke out of. Looks like some ultrashort bears may get caught in a massive short squeeze if not careful. I am looking for a bounce over the next couple days and which pt I will reassess. Nothing has caused more trading losses than a sure thing.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

At what price point will you conceed a secular bear is in place and new highs will not be reached anytime soon?

Thanks,

Dave

Anonymous said...

hi carl
im both long and short the mkt
it is at times like thse that we need to think about the what ifs
if this mkt is bearish then
the cycle that began on monday aug 18 will run the mkt down into mid sept and very possibly right into the elections . the nov cycle is the same cycle that tanked the mkt into jan 2008 . if the mkt is bullish then we are at the bottom or very close as of today since today is the cycle low due date for the entire year of 2008 and points higher into may 2009 .
the spx came down and tested 1263 yet ideally should poke below 1234 and then turn up strongly .
key support sits in the range of 1247-1238 .lastly we entered a theoretical crash cyle on monday
which calls for a bottom in mid sept . this cycle also correctly
called the march lows of 2008 .
to sum it up im mixed . to many bearish cycles all pointing strongly down . to add to this
we had this same set up in 2006
the mkt went up . this is what my model is calling for right now
an up mkt into may 2009 and even higher into june 2010 .
right now is the moment of truth
good luck
joe

Anonymous said...

fyg, the shorter dated US swap spreads blew out today making new highs thru the March Bear Stearns panic highs. But amazingly the swap spreads reversed to close at the lows completing a shooting star topping pattern which should see some follow thru with swap spreads tightening over the coming days. This should result in a pro-risk environment going forward. So I agree, a bear squeeze may be here. Also note the lighter volumes during the Mon & Tue sell off. CF

Anonymous said...

In my work we will NOT take out the July lows. Load up in early Sept. because election rally is upon us and the republicans will be milking favorable market conditions, favorable world instability conditions and LOW oil price conditions for all it's worth to get mccain elected. The shorts will get killed looking for another low and I will be the beneficiary of it.

Maurice

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

For the record, this is to let you and Jose know that I covered my short postition from 1273.50 and reinstated the long position once again at 1268.00 as the market was closing yesterday.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

Anonymous said...

PM,

Thanks for the post. What would it take for you to donfirm your buy? I was looking at lots of charts(broad) indices, and I noticed a few very interesting things. Hang Seng index is forming a massive consolidating triangle extending back to 2003. the NY100 looks like it just formed a super massive head and shoulders top, the DJA(composite) is taking very small steps higher...and the NYA(composite) formed a small consolidating triangle since July 15, 2008. Then lastly, the SPX formation of an ascending triangle since July 15, 2008 was broken by yesterday's lower move, but kept the formation of a rising channel, with higher highs and higher lows. I like Carl's 1340ish range as the next step up...looks like some very healthy base building going on in the SPX, but the HSI, and NY100 bother me. US Rally?/Global slowdown=Steadily rising US indices???