Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Guesstimates on August 5, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still long my original position from 1240.50. I also think the e-minis will soon begin a rally to 1325. Support today is again at 1250. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 so I think the market is now headed for 1250.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

My 1242.40 buy signal is still intact since that price was not violated and prices rallied once again from that level. Therefore I reinstated my long positions this morning and am now anticipating a second buy signal to occur soon enough. I actually made a few bucks over the past few days on the short side, but not much. For the remainder of this week, my confirmed buy price points are as follows for the September SP futures contract:

Tuesday – 1292.40
Wednesday – 1285.80
Thursday – 1278.70
Friday – 1271.00

Prices must close above that day’s corresponding price for a buy signal to be confirmed. Once the signal is confirmed, then we can expect the next wave of selling to appear at 1317.70, give or take a few ticks.

I would like to say to anyone first learning the market technicals that trading is highly risky and losses can be substantial. One should be very cautious about trading until they feel comfortable and are familiar with the risks.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

Hey Carl,

Todd Harrison and Doug Kass have an interesting conversation on Minyanville. Their take is this--because most investors are expecting either range bound markets or continued weakness, the path of least resistance would seem to be either an "uber-bear" crash, or a rally. As a contrarian, my view is that the odds of a crash with this much bearish sentiment are very low. So a nice rally would make sense now from a contrarian perspective.

I see the market as being in a very long bear cycle that began last October. There are massive problems in the financial system that has spread to the consumer, and we've got a long way to go. The economy and the market are really going to get ugly. But the market is not going down in a straight line. There are going to be bull runs within this bear, and it appears that we're in such a run now. I agree with Carl's prediction that this market is going up. Not sure if we'll see 1500 by year-end. But even if we did, it would constitute a "lower high" and would fit with the thesis that we're in a bear market.


Anonymous said...

I think EURUSD is headed for 1.46, eventually 1.44 in the longer run but i am going to get long this market since market structure suggests a safe entry at 5480 with a tight stop at 5460 to target 1.5720. Crude oil is headed for 96 while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward for 697 USD. Good trading all !MC