Friday, June 18, 2010

Guesstimates on June 18, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1102-1120. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00. An extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin soon.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Nav said...

Confirmed the guess estimates,hoping to start the day with your guidance!
1119-1123 is on the upside.
I acknowledge that my positive trading
in last 6mnths was based entirely on your help and support!

Good luck!

sandy allred said...

Contiunue to expect weakness next week and some stronger selling the week following.

Adsense said...

looking at the nyse cash index
dec 8 1994 low oct 9 2002 low
would look for a turn on august 10 2010. low to low to high count .
i am seeing many many counts that are centered around early august .
weather it be a high or a low i think it is significant

sandy allred said...

August 10 area looks like a high. July 1 or 2 looks like a low.

Dave Narby said...

Hi Carl,

Think we will make a run at new highs and fail, then plummet into the late Summer/early Fall.

I'm also still waiting for some more detailed analysis on precious metals. So far your analysis hasn't been more than "I think they are going here and here", but you have failed to give any reasons why.

Do you really think they will hike interest rates before employment starts recovering? Because that's the only thing I can see that cause them to decline, and that seems highly unlikely.

Not to mention any systemic shock will likely trigger a moon shot...

Atul said...

Hi Kishore

where are you nd your comments

I am interested to know if u are still bearish


Day Trader said...

1117 was rejected once again today, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the 1092 number you mentioned yesterday at some point early next week.

Nav said...

Well said Atul! Thanks.
The trend remains the same,selling pressure has dried up meaningfully,w/people viewing pullbacks as opportunity to cover/nibble on the long side(which has made sells short lived lately)while rallies are no longer bringing out the major selling pressures that it did back in May and early June.Buyers are still reluctant to embrace the mkt on the long side in a meaningful way;a lot of the big long - only money remains on the sidelines.the 1040-1050 range tests of may25 and june8 are being viewed as a double- bottom test.,providing a firm floor for the tape.Performance anxiety has been more an issue lately as equities creep higher (the sp500 has climbed 2.5% for the last two consecutive weeks) and will prob. become more acute as we head into Q-end over the next couple wks.
my 15 years old best friend,who is`a successful commodity trader now recommends"The Art of contrary trading" to his fellows.Enjoys the blogs ,too so does my son.
How grateful We would I be to you!
Live long happy,healthy and rich life with your loved ones!
Great week end,sir!