Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Guesstimates on June 29, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1048-1070. I still think that the 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Unknown said...

Gee nothing for nothing Carl but you have lowered the target on this bounce now constantly for the last 5 weeks.. If/When 1036 gives it will be a given you will just keep revising the downside line in the sand..

Not so sure I understand how that is a recipe for success.. Ever hear the expression cut your loss? Youd be broke by now if you were using real money...

PM said...

Hi Carl,

A close today below 1062.50 will confirm a new down trend is under way, according to my model.


Kindest regards,


Laurence said...

The bull market is over, get over it. Lots of money to made on the short side once you get past the fact that every drop is seen a buying opportunity.

Unknown said...

Hi Carl,

It is really interesting to read your comments on the market.
Sorry to say that I think this time it simply misses the reality.

I am still maintaining my view that the market is heading below 960 within 3 - 5 month.

Some reasons to be Bear:

- The real economy is in terrible shape both US and Europe, even China is struggling to maintain momentum.
The developed world lost the competitiveness considering current rate exchanges and this big issue can't be resolved on the short-term.

- It is nothing but cheating the public to take into account only one side of the picture.
So the government is telling that the economy is growing. Yes say it is bigger by 1 Billion$
But the other side is that the government is in bigger debt by 10 billion$. This is what they call improvement or growth?
Government can help in many ways, but has no tools to divert pending depression, and change the bigger economic cycles perminently.

- It would take more than a generation for all US employed and working pople having a 20% haircut on their salary to pay back the debt.
Who on earth believe repayment will ever happen and continue supporting the reckless US government by buying US bonds? I have no clue as a valid, real reason.

- Huge cracks brewing between the US and the other part of the world, especially Europe and the final conclusion will be the refusal of the acceptance of the US$.
Most of Europe, especially Germany, France and the Scandinavian nations have much better controls over their finances, and they are making better decisions toward the long-term solution.
Some of the southern European contries, where the easy life was always a higher priority.. causes some head-ache for European financial stability.

The disagreements between the G8, G20 nations this time, that I haven't seen in the past 10 years only the beginning of a much bigger
and irreversible issue regarding the future of the dollar.

- The idea is to push to consume, consume, consume like no tomorrow is a thick advice, as it is not based on real needs.
The human population currently destroying the earth and it's resources with a much bigger speed, than the natural healing process of the planet.

- Housing industry is dead in the US. It will take 6 - 10 years to recover. That considered by many as the biggest driver of growth. (Or contraction, which is coming.)

- Credit is not increasing, but decreasing. What kind of growth can you expect, when the credit to do anything is limited?

Some of the Bullish arguments:

- Strong innovations still reaching the market, though not as radically new developments, as in the nineties.
- Microsoft is forcing the world into a new upgrade cycle, so many companies will invest bigger amounts in IT after the arrival of the Windowws 8.
- Mobil computing, communication is still spreading, with Apple as the leader in innovations.
- The replacement of gas - driven cars with electric cars is a very long process, and it will help, but not on a 2 - 3 year time-frame, but on a 20 - 30 years time-frame.

Over the past 10 years I had predicted all of the big turns in the market correctly, except one sudden breakdown, that ocurred on Sept 2008.
In 2000, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, all of my predictions for bigger market turns were correct. In this one I am very confident.

My opinion at this point: Don't buy the dips if you still would like to have your shirt Tomorrow! Just 3 month after the big break you will be surpized how high these valuations are.

(Sorry for the longer than average entry. If I can help You to save some of your funds, than It was worthwile.)


Me XMan said...

Market will rise just like the sun will rise tomorrow. Day gets dark but it eventually with see daylight.

Unknown said...

Hi Carl,

Have you seen the 10 Year yields?


sandy allred said...

Today confirms my negative bias for this week. Revising my 939 target date to July 7.

pimaCanyon said...

When the market tanks, the comments hit the fan!

I have a chart pattern that projects low 900's SPX. However, before that drop, there's a chance we will see 40 to 50 percent retrace of move down from 1132 SPX high. If we get that retrace, that could be a great shorting opportunity. It is also possible that we don't get a significant retrace and instead just continue dropping from here.

Good luck!

Win said...

The USD is forming a lower high today; it bounced up after touching the up trending 50 DMA, but there are signs of a top here. There are numerous negative divergences in RSI and MACD for the USD. I think today will mark a ST top in the USD and a ST bottom in the indices. I don't know how much upside we'll see in the next 2 weeks, though. I wouldn't be surprised by a 1040 - 1080 trading range until earnings season begins in end July.

paul.aa - Carl is guessing where the market might go. If he sees confirmation that his guesses are correct, he bets on them. It's a successful strategy - as you can see if you follow his record or trades.

extrader said...

Consider a long position here at 1044... drop looks like its over!