Friday, June 25, 2010

Guesstimates on June 25, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1060-1082. I still think that the 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


nietgek said...

How do you think about the probable SP 500 weekly Key Reversal down..?

A rare and normally pretty reliable trendchange indicator/sellsignal..

extrader said...

The drop is over, time to go long here at 1066.50


FH said...


What do you think about BP?

sandy allred said...

This morning there was an early flush out and reversal. Combined with the higher oil price, my view on next week has changed to positive. Now expect higher prices through early July 6 followed by a two day sharp break, eight sessions of very dull trading giving way to a collapse of terrific magnitude.

Anonymous said...

Will today's "rally" sell-off like the one we had yesterday? As per yesterday's schedule, the sell programs should kick in at 2:00 pm EST.

Carl, we hit 1080 on the high side and 1062.75 on the low side, very close to your estimates!

sandy allred said...

Today's rally is more likely to sell off on guess.

Nav said...

The tape remains in a trading range (marked by 1040 on the downside and ~1110 on the upside) and hasn’t been able to break out in either direction. Activity is on the quiet side; a lot of the fin strength is coming via XLFs (vs. single stocks); given we are right in the middle of our range, people aren’t willing to make big stand in either direction.
Your blog speaks itself of your knowledge and hard work.
Thank you and Wish you a safe and happy week end.

Nav said...

Best Performing SP500 stocks: CF, JBL, DFS, TSO, MCO, NEM, FHN, SUN, MI, VLO •
Weakest Performing SP500 stocks: APC, WAG, GCI, ADBE, NBR, ODP, DRI, NWS,
The homebuilders dipped “only” 2.8% despite a bunch of neg. data points (as some of the selling pressure appears to have been exhausted; the builders in the month of June are off 14%, by far the worst acting group). Financials outperformed, ending off ~1.4%, although all the gains came on Fri (when the space rallied nearly 3% following the passage of the fin reg reform through the reconciliation committee).