Tuesday, June 01, 2010


Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading since the 1036.75 low.

I thought the market would continue its overnight weakness after the open but instead it rallied strongly. The rally carried it above the top of the last reaction (dash green line) prior to its low at 1069. The drop from 1106.75 was nearly 38 points in length as compared with 34 points on the previous reaction (purple rectangles). A strong rally after a drop about as big as the last drop is an indication that the latest drop is over and that the trend has turned upward once more.

I thought today's day session range would be about 20 points. The low thus far has been 1076.75 so I now think the day session high will be 1097 or so.

The ES has established a second higher low. This is very bullish action. I think it means that the market is now headed for the upper channel line and the 1125 level (green oval). We are in the early stages of a move to 1300.


vs_trader said...

actually the day seems to be young. This is first full day after 3 day holiday and futures seems to be finding resistance at key levels. If we close below 1085 it could be bad news for bulls.

I usually wait for a day or two for the trade to establish after the holidays. The initial moves turn out to be fake out most of the time.


Anonymous said...

The market has broken its previous pattern of opening much higher after long weekends.

Narayana said...

until we break 1100 on /es, we're in a series of lower highs and lower lows since Friday morning. Downtrend?

Tim Mack said...

Carl- you always keep me thinking, I don’t always agree with you but I do enjoy your perspective.



Unknown said...

DOWN action here in the market...not healthy.

smcneill said...

Seems like we keep banging on the low end of the channel?

vs_trader said...

in a bear market the trend lines are drawn connecting resistance points (highs) and the lower channel lines keeps giving way to create further downward sloping channel until there is a meltdown, spike, day of reckoning - call whatever you like.

The bear market has started IMO.