Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Guesstimates on June 8, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1035-1060. I think the market will drop into the 1000-1020 range before an extended rally starts. I still expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market broke decisively below 122 support Friday but I think it is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


extrader said...

I would be shorting anything close to 1056, as I think the market will test down to 1036!


Jack said...

Buyers apparently are gone.

This market got some fighting to do to get back up thru some major resistence.

Anonymous said...

Going long is out of the question but even shorting has become very risky. We don't have to play all the time. For me, it is timeout. Will wait for the next rally to complete, before shorting.

Playing has nothing to do with "missed opportunities". It has everything to do with not losing, i.e. minimization of risk.

dcatlowpj said...

Looks like 50 was support, and now resistance as Jack seems to be saying...chop at the open.

tempo said...

The big winner in this sell off is the Treasury who can finance the $2 trillion deficit with lower and lower interest rates and a stronger dollar.

Anonymous said...

Whenever I overlooked the longer term charts and made my trading decisions based on shorter term charts, the trade turned out sour, most of the time.

Let us not overlook the fact that we have been in a sellout for quite sometime. It may continue and we may lose some potential profits but imagine the losses if we are caught against a powerful rally and we cancel our stop loss order, as done quite often under the heat of having to swallow a loss.

Instead of shorting a breakdown, it will be safer to short only completed rallies, i.e.when negative divergences appear.

Atul said...

Kishore - Perfect comment. I would be interested to know when you think will be right time to short.


Anonymous said...

The stick rally, from 1041 to 1053, that started at 11:13 am proves my point above.

This market is for the day-trader birds, who can quickly pick with their beaks and fly away!

After all, we have those monstrous HFT computers on the other side!

Unknown said...

demand shock in progress ?

extrader said...


i dont the a demand shock in in progress... most traders will wait for 1000 for the demand shock!

Nav said...

Guess estimates as usual were great.
Thanks but today trading was frightening to me.I am out of trades for few days.
I am glad and thankful for every support and teachings from you!
Live long &stay healthy and prosperous with your loved ones,My great teacher!

Anonymous said...

Naveedah, can you please give us a gist of what you have learnt, so we may all benefit from it?

extrader said...


What is a STICK rally?

Anonymous said...

extrader, it looks like a stick, thin and long!

Also, because it is so fast and abrupt, only stupid HFT computers can cause it.

In other words, they stick it to the bears! And it hurts.

Nav said...

May I ask that Isn't this blog enough?
If it doesn't hold enough understanding of the market,then why traders visit?
Great people like eminiwizard thank for Carl's sharing insight.
The art of contrarian trading made me learn,and blogs made me to capture ES_F 's moves.
I can give my live trades for any day you choose but I respected two men from my heart;my father and Carl as my greatest teacher.I wish him to be there for me taking me as his student.

Cristian said...

I think Naveedah is confusing teacher and guru, student and follower. But anyway, what do I know?

This does not mean that I do not appreciate Carl taking the time and sticking his neck out this way, regardless of whether or not I have something to learn from it.