Friday, June 04, 2010

Guesstimates on June 4, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1070-1090. I think the low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. I had thought that the base building process was complete but the employment number this morning knocked the market back to the low end of its recent 1068-1105 trading range. A move to 1300 is underway

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122. I think a move to 140 will begin from current levels.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Bill said...

Base building will probably continue until earnings season. A catalyst that will inject new blood into the bull market is required. There needs to be a sentiment changer and I can't see anything other than earnings right now that will do it.

I think we've seen the lows, nevertheless the sustained bull market is not back. Not yet. But after a couple of weeks of sideways to slighly up trading the bull market will take off again. July should be one of the best Julys in history.

MaverickUK said...

Carl -if you are so sure why don't you go long and stay long? After all - 220 pts is a lot of money? maybe put your stop at 1036 as you think that is the low? Therefore you are risking 44 pts for 220 sounds like a good risk reward to me?

This is what I think. I think we'll going to have a little bit of a rally and then a massacre this evening. Hold on to your hats as these markets get obliterated. Circuit breakers may even get triggered again.

Anonymous said...

For ES, a retest of 1037, once again, appears to be in the cards, for this house of cards.

Anonymous said...

For those who still remember the postings of yesterday, I hope we have all learnt that it is better to err on the side of safety rather than to go gungho merely on the basis of speculation or an unproven hypothesis, especially when one's very own hard-earned money is at stake.

Lock your greed away and minimize your risk!

vs_trader said...

I seem to agree with the range today but my trade was sell the top (86-88) and cover 50% at bottom leaving the rest to ride break even. Lets see what the day bring but so far the trade is working on the down side.

Geo said...

I think Carl has posted elsewhere the following: "All in all, I think the current market juncture is a buying opportunity for the aggressive contrarian trader. But since he already is carrying an above average stock market commitment from the 690 level in the S&P 500 no further action is required."

Implication is Carl is long from 690 and holding out for 1300, may be.

raven said...

This is a great buying opportunity.

What should I do with this lousy short play I have carried all week on the es.

Oh wait I just got back in the money...

never mind.. :)

volcanik said...

ES is going to hit 1000 before it gets any higher.

ga said...

Funny thing is that this could be the start of 3 of 3 down and 950-980 is in the cards....just as easy imo, is that we hold 1070 and Monday sees a rally start back to 1115-1122-1132 or higher ....pullback and repeat.

Monday is key to me.

This UK guy is a jerk, he could try to be polite or don't the have manners across the pond anymore?

Nav said...

Thanks for so correct estimates.helped shorting @1088--1072.
This is all your grace!
Have a great weekend sir with your loved ones1

I am half Spanish so if someone please post online news papers names on comments and oblige!
Great blog!

Adsense said...

Hi carl
this is becoming more and more bearish as far as i can see , but going to mention a potential bullish 30 minute chart pattern. 3 peaks side of market points 4 5 6 and 7 would have been the recent high . poing 10 would need to get below both points 4 and 6 . point 6 has been broken ye point 4 sits at 9952 and could be broken before the close .
the snap back for points 11 12 13 14 up into point 15 would have to be quick we will see soon enough .

extrader said...

June 1 gap filled and this is support... we go up from here at 1070!


Unknown said...

Base has sucked people in with the quick and easy rallies.

Of course, the action resembles a bear market. Best to listen to what market is telling you.

Me XMan said...

I see SPX 980 coming. Get your money ready.

raven said...

were going lower. much lower.

When 1010 fails the next stop will be 944. this doesnt hold 877. the real test is 665. After that some of the more super bear elw's begin to look sane.

The action is looking very bearish unless helicopter ben comes in with a trillion or so ...

Anonymous said...

extrader, the temptation to go long or short here is as old as the time when Adam was tempted to eat the apple.

Rajeev Bharol said...

I said this earlier too. When the decline started no body believed it can fall this far. "Dips will be bought" has been the mentality for so long now. That is hurting bulls. There will be a bounce off course, but for that bearishness has to rise and bullishness has to decline.

Anonymous said...

investorX, as you made your claim yesterday that you use people like me as your contrary indicator, let us see if you will survive in this market longer than your "indicator". Your arrogance has made you fall flat on your face. I hope you did not lose any money. Maybe, not yet!

anonimoXXX said...

Dear Kishore, Im long still 2% up from 1045. Im in the market since last time the "are gonna crash" was in everybodys mouth. Im breakeven, is the good thing of buy in panic. My opinion is that this potential bottom is like the last bottom before the last rally of 2007.In that bottom we had two attemps to wash the stops of everybody before rise as never. Of course im less comfortable than yesterday and we cant discart a bankruptcy this weekend. But by other point of view is right to say that the new bulls that the last small rallies created, are again afraid and that is potentially bullish. Anyway my friend, if im stoped I will study the situation again. For last I must say that great vix spikes tend to have an eco of volatility, so is not a surprise the fear generated today.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

A close today below 1067.00 triggered yet another sell signal for my model.


Kindest regards,


Rajeev Bharol said...

Negative breadth is increasing, big money is bailing out and SnP has been rejected by 200 DMA twice now...

This IS Bearish. I think It is not yet time to play contrarian.

Market Owl said...

There has been too many breakdowns to 1070 for the market to bounce up strong. There might be one more bounce back up to 1100, there might not. Either way, I see this thing going down to 1020 at the minimum. The fundamentals are getting worse and the majority still thinks its just Europe and US won't be affected.

Win said...


I think I can answer your question:

1. Look at Carl's trading style. Carl has stated that he is trading one E-mini unit for 15,000 in capital. If the SP were to fall to 1036 or so, he would risk a margin call.

2. More importantly, Carl is modeling risk management for 100s maybe 1000s of newer traders. What of the guy who follows Carl in without as much capital?

3. Carl is almost certainly long, in his longer-term accounts, from MUCH lower levels.

Finally, you should know all these things. Why keep being an ass?

E said...

Emotions seem to be running high, judging by the comments.

I appreciate those of you who post objective criteria like your charts or reasons for believing in the direction of the next swing.

It sounds like most of you are position players.

For little guys like me, I prefer to try to take something out of the day's range.

For me, it's easier to predict the weather for the next 24 hrs, rather than for the next 6 months.

Mr Futia's range estimates for the day are quite helpful in that regard.

Step by step, one day at a time.

Thanks and have a great weekend all.

sandy allred said...

Have to agree with Bill on his July forecast.

guy said...

If the largest group is to become the daily losers, then the next move should be up as shorts and longs have been in a losing game for the most part. And this is the time for the bear trap. But noone has mentioned a potential megaphone formation that may conclude in a week or so in a diamond pattern that may break to the upside. Just commenting.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

The next possible buy signal will occur this Wednesday IF AND ONLY IF the market closes above 1049.90 on Wednesday June 9th... if this happens, then I would expect to see yet another highly spirited rally, but there is no way to know if this coming rally (if a signal is generated) would have legs or not... if no buy signal is issued, then the current short from 1067.00 is safe and the market will likely continue lower with a possible maximum downside stretch to 1001.40, give or take a few ticks... if that level doesn't hold, then we may see a decline to 935.00, give or take a few ticks...

In the cash chart below, notice the market below the 200 DMA and the 20 and 50 DMA both moving lower, and the 20 DMA appearing to push prices downward...$INX&data=A&date=021909&den=HIGH&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=021&argd=20&arge=50&argf=200&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk


Kindest regards,


Aarpenn said...

See, now you guys have done it with all your negative commentary. Carl just emailed me and said "I am upset and I am never going to blog again".
Carl - come on man, don't this to us. we are all waiting for your Guesstimates


Win said...

Sorry, bad Math above. He wouldn't risk a margin call with a 44 point loss on a 15000 account trading one unit. Regardless, my point stands - that's not Carl's trading style. He doesn't risk 44 point losses.

yin said...

this seems to be a repeat of last year... keep calling for the bottom until the bottom falls out ?