Thursday, June 24, 2010

Guesstimates on June 24, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1070-1092. The low of this reaction should develop today. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


andi said...

i agree that today's low should be a good buying opportunity..however,LT target beyond 1120-1130 is a pipe dream as of now

Anonymous said...

ES may rally back to 1150 from here, but it should be building a base first. Anyways, I will short no more until there is confirmation of the next rally being over. So, I can take a break.

It has taken me a long time to learn that one should not trade often, i.e. trade only when the risk is low. This is the only advantage, we, the homo sapiens, have over those stupid HFT computers.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
this looks like we are now heading down into point 28 which should test the lows of may . that said
we have a lunar eclipse in the earlyu morning tomorrow , it ends about an hour after the open friday
im not a big supporter of lunar events yet it is still something to consider for the early morning market action friday . today we can now say this week in the dow we have seen a higher high above last weeks high and a lower low below last weeks low . guess we will see where we close on friday
i can see a reason to rally yet
based on the minor 3 peaks domed house pattern i have to keep a bearish bias . dow 8000 by november
still makes sense

Anonymous said...

Adsense, tomorrow morning, at 8:30 am EST, is there is a release of Consumer Sentiment data. As it is based on the surveyed opinions of only 500, it "should have" a mickey mouse significance. Nevertheless, the market rallied hard on it the last time.

When the market is where it is, technically, it can rally without any excuse or against all odds, but, as I don't participate in the rallies of a corrupt market, I could not care less. However, HFT computers probably don't even know what the moon is! They get their cues only from a bird of prey, i.e. a "bald headed Eagle" called Ben.

Rajeev said...

S&P 500 seen rising 13 per cent by year-end: Poll

Carl, this is another headline. By your logic, when all turtles turn on one side, time for a contrarian move. Whats ur take.

Anonymous said...

Rajeev, your advice may be good for turtles but in this age of HFT computers and "business at the speed of light", you have to be a turtle to believe everything you read as "headlines".