Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Guesstimates on August 10, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1132-1170. I think the ES will rally to 1180-1200, then break to 1100 or so, then put in a multi-week rally to 1200-1250.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is still 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is at 83 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: The market has traded as high as 1777, $27 above our 1750 target. I think the next development will be a drop to 1450. Resistance above the market is at 1810.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway. Support is at 530.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.


Nav said...

Crude demand – IEA says crude demand is falling and warns of a “plunge” in demand if a
slowdown hits. Oil demand growth could more than halve if the global economy grew
slowed than expected in 2012. FT
I Remember when You were insisting fall in Crude prices and none of us was convinced.
Great,SirCL_F> 115--75,and then 70 if been shorted on e/pop .
Great Analysis.ES_F last night 1178--1132 was told in the seminar,too.
I'm proud to learn from you,and appreciate all day support from you,as well.

LoanWolf said...

You can be sure the market's decline will be posted all over every newspaper and magazine. Contrary indicator, maybe, but then what else is there to write about to generate headlines.
Another good indicator is the number of comments on this blog.

Adsense said...

i doubt you will ever post a mid section count untill the market has actually come to its projected low . that said tomorrow is the next date to watch since it:
feb 18 high plus 40 trade days april 18 low plus 40 trade days plus 40 trade days june 15 low plus 40 trade days is tomorrow thursday aug 11 2011 . top to bottom to bottom to bottom ???

Antony said...

Hi Carl,

I wonder if you ever will adjust your guesstimates on Bond yields which have been going down... ever since your projected them to go up!

If you trade bonds, where will be your stop loss level?


Anonymous said...


Carl hasn't been very good regarding his crude oil call. He was looking for $50 the entire time that crude was rallying from $75 up to $110.

If you had been SHORT during that move you would have blown up your account.

Just trying to keep it real.