Friday, August 05, 2011

Guesstimates on August 5, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1200-1225. Yesterday's high volume collapse was climactic and the next development will be a rally to 1250-1260. The 200 day moving average is still headed upward so I still think this 12 % drop in the cash S&P is a correction within an ongoing bull market.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support is at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: The market took out its last low at 90 yesterday so I think it is now headed for 80-81. My best guess is that a bear market in crude is now underway.

GLD – December Gold: Next stop is 1750. Support is at 1570.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.


extrader said...

The new book that you recomment to buy George Lindsay, does it describe in detail about his method?

Great job on your trading room results in this BEARish market of late!


Bill said...

It is very hard to say whether it'll become a bear market or not. One thing to remember though is that the selling in March 2009 was stopped with the announcement of QE1, the Treasury was going to buy distressed mortgage securities. the selling in 2010 also stopped in July when QE2 was announced. If the Fed doesn't step in this time there could be a real carnage.

pimaCanyon said...


You mention the rising 200 DMA as evidence that the bull market needs to be given the benefit of the doubt. However, IF we have had a sea change here and IF the bear has awakened, because the 200 DMA is such a long moving average, it will take quite a while for it to start pointing down, no? So if you're using the 200 DMA changing direction (from rising to falling) as your indicator for a change from bull to bear, it will register that change long after the bull market top. In fact, once the 200 DMA does turn down, the bear market will be well underway and you will have given up a significant portion of the gains from the now deceased bull. So the question is: Why do you use an indicator that has such a long lag time?

And another question: Do you use any of the DOW theory indicators for buying or selling the market?

Piazzi said...

rising 200 MA may be a lagging thing to catch up after lots of losses

One may narrow and say, bull when 200 is rising and price is above 200, bear when 200 is falling and price below 200, indeterminate trend (or chop-chop sideways) otherwise

smcneill said...

We are below the 200 DMA. That in itself it a bearish signal. Carl is very right when the market is going up and very wrong when it is going down.

extrader said...

I believe this market is heading down to 1103. This is a major support area from the 03/02/09 low to the 05/02/11 high. The 1103 is a 38.2 retrace on the Fibs.

The other small support comes in at 1144, which is the 61.8 retrace from the low of 07/05/10 to the 05/02/11 high... these are the week of.

Win said...

ex - for once I agree with you. However, first we go up to 1250-60 -- at the very least -- and probably all the way up to 1310-20.

Piazzi said...

If that were the case that just being below 200 would make a bear market, then summer 2010 would make a bear market, which was not the case

It's never, IMHO, that easy to be arbitrary about bulls bear simply because price is below or above a certain MA

it can be better refined by using slope of the Ma and also by using 2 or three MA if different lengths

JT said...

" and the next development will be a rally to 1250-1260."

What happened to 1400?

extrader said...


dont know what chart ur looking at but on a weekly chart we are NOT below the 200MA.

I think that 1103 is where the 200MA and the 38% retrace will come together and give us the support.

George Rahal said...

NYAD line hit its 200 DMA from above for the first time since the bull market began in 2009. That's a good indicator that this correction is most likely over.

Adsense said...

i have been reading and learning about lindsays methods for only a couple years now . and i ordered the book you mentioned , i still wish you would show yoru midsection count from last year and wonder why you dont ??
i also wonder if what we are seeing now is another mid section count , so far this market is action very similar to the 1974-1976 rally , the decline when looking at momentum indicators is following the decline that followed almost exactly , this decline might just be a catch up so to speak . the key in my mind is the mid section count and i will look into it even though i wish you would post your thoughts

smcneill said...


S&P daily

smcneill said...

200 DMA is around 1282+

Adsense said...

i brought up the mid section count
back in 2009 and i had found it to be very accurate using very short term charts . you may not agree with what im about to say yet doing my own research today using a monthly chart just to give me an outline .using the dow .
fisrt a couple rules i have used as guides . E TO H i have found targets J when calculated correctly , just an observation i have noted using very short term charts . point B would have been in sept 2009 point C oct 2009 point E dec 2009 Point F jan 2010
point G april 2010 Point H july 2010. Point E to H targets Feb 2011.this is labeled Point J point K
march 2011 point L may 2011 Point M
July 2011. This implies we are heading towards point A which should begin a new Bull Market phase once we get there .
keeping in mind the 12 yr 3 month to 12 yr 8 month cycles which ill add to the latter . i want to also note another observation .
i borrowed the data posted on the web but will give it some credit
it is based on the past 50 yr bear markets . there is a period of
21 yr 7 months to 21 yr 11 months
from the begining of bear markets in one cycle to the end of a bear market in a different cycle .
examples .
aug 1956 to march 1978 21 yr 7 month
dec 1961 aug 1982 20 yr 8 month
feb 1966 dec 1987 21 yr 10 month
nov 1968 oct 1990 21 yr 11 month
jan 1981 oct 2002 21 yr 9 month
AUG 1987 MARCH 2009 21 yr 7 month
this takes us to
July 1990 plus the:= Feb May 2012 .
jan/march2000 plus 12 yr 3 month
is APRIL TO NOV 2012 .
E to J targets point A correct ?
yet sometimes point C can be used .
E Being Dec 2009 J being feb 2011
we get April 2012 for point A
using point C oct 2009 to Feb 2011
targets June 2012.
next Lindsays time spans we topped in what can be called a long advance . the bear market time spans ( SHORT ) of 342-363 days
would call for a low in the time range of :april 8 ( sunday )to
april 29 2012 ( also a sunday )
i realise the extreme oversold readings at this present juncture so can see reasons for a bounce yet i think for all the reasons noted above it is time to recount the 3 peaks domed house pattern to something larger and outside lindsays parameters which i think you wont agree with . this said point 3 would be in the same place as point J point 7 is the july highs.we are now in or just completed point 8 which leaves a bounce in point 9 and then point 10
how all the time frames noted above correlate with points 10 12 and 14 im unsure of yet all of this ties together as i see it and it implies we are in a much larger bull market into aug sept 2014.
2014.675 is a martin armstrong time span so an inversion may accure similar to this years.
Food for though and well thought out even if you disagree .
all for now

d333gs said...

Hi Carl
Wanted to share two charts with you that are using a S/R trend line different than the one that most TAers are using.
Thanks for all that you post!