Thursday, August 25, 2011

up - then down

Here is a five point box, one box reversal chart of the last two weeks of e-mini trading.

You can see that the ES built a substantial base in the 1115-1150 range last week and early this week. The count target (solid green lines) from this base point to 1240. However, I think this is a bear market and in bear markets upside count targets are often not fulfilled. The midpoint of the drop from the May top to the August low is 1222 and this is perhaps a more realistic target for this rally.

The upside breakout from this base reached a temporary high this morning at 1188.50 on the news that Warren Buffett has taken a substantial position in Bank of America. The drop from there has been fast, but support should develop in the vicinity of the breakout level (red dash line) which is at 1153.25.

Once the rally into the 1220-40 range is over I expect the ES to resume its bear market decline.


myanmarinvestor said...

Hi Carl,

Is the market still following the 3 peaks and a dome thesis? Has your count changed?


Nav said...

Supports are 1156,
1147, 1137. Resists 1170/1178.

q said...

I would not describe Buffet's position in BofA as "substantial" in dollar terms. Its neither large in terms of the amount of dollars BofA needs nor in terms of Berkshire's investments/arsenal. However from a pyschological perspective, the impact of a Buffet investment on confidence is immeasurable!

rodders said...

Hi Carl

What are you downside targets on the S&P500 once this bear market rally is over?


rodders said...

Hi Carl

What are your downside targets on the S&P500 once this bear market rally is over?

Also don't you think we've formed a symmetrical triangle since the 1100 lows which implies the next leg down starts imminently?