Monday, August 15, 2011

Guesstimates on August 15, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1178-1198. I think the ES will rally 1200, then again break to 1100 or so, then put in a multi-week rally to 1200-1250.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is still 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 87 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: The market has traded as high as 1817. I think the next development will be a drop to 1450. Resistance above the market is at 1810.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway. Support is at 530.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.


Sim said...

So is the three kings over and are we about to see the market collapse after the spx1200

Carl Fredrik said...

What happened to 1010?


Bill said...

I think it all hinges on Europe. If Europe holds up this market is on its way up to 1,400 non-stop, and by that I mean this market will not see 1,100 again in 2011. If Europe doesn't hold up, and the debt crisis implodes bringing down european stock exchanges then North America will go down in sympathy. Let's face it nothing happened here in the US over the last 4 weeks to justify the current lower valuations, the market is 150 points undervalued right now. The only reason the market is trading so low is the risk of a european collapse and a recession that would spill over to North America. If this risk doesn't materialize over the next month we will see 1400 by the end of the year.

AlexGav said...

Take a look at PNF Chart daily
Bearish Price Objective met at 1140

We are going into new highs
Nobody thinks it's possible

It's a contrarian view?$SPX,PETHDANRRR[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

AlexGav said...

Last week, between Monday and Friday, new lows declined by over 90%. It is unlikely the recent lows will be violated.

The Reuters/University of Michigan index fell nearly nine points to 54.9 which is just below levels during the worst of the 2008 meltdown. This is nearly a record low, next only to the Iranian hostage crisis and oil embargo of the late 70s and early 80s. The expectations component, which is the leading component, fell more than 10 points to 45.7, again very severely depressed and near a record low. The current conditions component fell less severely, down more than six points to 69.3.

Mike Burk

SmallInventor said...

still following you thanks

Win said...

Every dummy is going short at all these fib retracement levels. Market will keep going up to at least 1220 ES before a small pause. Too much bearishness.