Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Guesstimates on August 9, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1112-1162. I think the ES will rally to 1180-1200, then break to 1050 or so, then put in a multi-week rally to 1200-1250.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is still 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: Crude has dropped close to 75 last night. Resistance above the market is at 83 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 rnage..

GLD – December Gold: The market traded $27 above our 1750 target last night but we think the next development will be a drop to 1450. Resistance above the market is at 1810.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway. Support is at 530.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.


extrader said...

Is ur 1400 prediction still in play?

Bill said...

Well there's a very interesting article on Fortune Magazine detailing S&P's scenario that made them downgrade the US debt. It's a scary one, long term 30_year interest rates will go to 5% in the next 5 years. Interest payment of US debt will then account for 27% of all government revenue. This would make interest payments the same size of social security payments. Here's the link http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/09/standard-poors-worst-case-debt/?iid=HP_LN

If this is true the next 5 years don't look good for stocks. Sounds like the US government is where General Motors was in 2003, hence the downgrade from S&P. Well even if not like GM, they will be in 5 years where Spain is today as this article points out.

Piazzi said...

Is your Buy! Buy! Buy! recommendation of update of

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

still in effect ?

or does it belong to a different time frame for a different type of player that the one who might use your range and market projections of today

Bill said...

And I'd like to add that the only way out of this nightmare debt scenario is either default, austerity that will lead to mass unemployement, or inflation. A lot of people will disagree with me but the third option is the best one of the three. And the gold market is expecting it (that's why it's been going up). QE3 is now an absolute must to grease up the economic and inflationary wheel. Moderate inflation of let's say 4% a year is the way to go. Let's face it politicians won't cut expenditures (and if they did they would create a recession) and by deflating the value of paper currencies world economies will reduce the size of their debt to GDP ratios and the deficit to GDP ration. All this provided nominal government expenditures do not increase and remain flat, while the inflation factor of the GDP increases. It's porbably the only practical way right now of cutting government expenditures since politicians are in gridlock, unable to legislate any meaningful cuts, fortunately they are unable to legislate any meaningful increases either. As long as there's inflation with no nominal expenditures increases, the size of the debt will decrease.

extrader said...


If the US defaults nothing will be left... Look how the markets reacted when a small country like Greece was on the brink of default... Do you think anything will be standing if the US defaults? Markets would go down to ZERO and mass murdering in the streets all over the world!

David said...


You'll have the three of them