Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Guesstimates on August 2, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: I now think the market will break the June 16 low at 1252.25 and possibly the March 17 low at 1241.25 before it turns higher. Today's day session range estimate is 1257-1277. I expect to see a move above the 1400 level once this bull market correction is complete.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support is at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target at 1630 has been reached but there is no sign of a top. Next stop is 1750. Support is at 1520.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.


Laurence said...

Calling for the market to go down 8th day in a row? That is still called a correction?

smcneill said...

It looks like the market is rolling over the top. breaking down below the 200 MA. How do you still classify as a correction?

Ted said...

Hi Carl,

I appreciate all that you publish on your blog. Thanks!
Why do you feel so strongly that the bull market highs for the move from ES 666 are yet to come? I ask this when you have for the past two years talked about an appox. 2 year bull market from March 2009 lows. It seems that we hit that target pretty closely. It also seems to me that Lindsay's 3PDH pattern that you have predicted simply looks like we have passed the top at point 23 back in the 1370s for ES.

Bill said...

Csrl, I think you are right this correction will be a big one. European shares hit today an 11 month low http://www.cnbc.com/id/43981617 . If the US market is to follow Europe, which it usually does, then we are looking to go back to October 2008 or September 2008 valuations. The bear is back!

George Rahal said...

We may have bottomed today...this trendline may hold: http://goo.gl/gUwT7

PM said...

Yesterday I posted here that I placed buy orders at 1263.80 just in case... I was filled today, now the rally can begin in earnest!!!

boris said...

Todays Low likely
at 1860+-1emini pt

GMoney said...

As of right now it looks like you are close with your day range. Bottomed at 1258. Nice. The 50 handle drop in the past 36 hours feels a lot like a bear market. Carl what is your downside target? When would you be more inclined to start selling rallies instead of buying dips? Thanks!

Laurence said...

Well Carl, i guess you were right, the debt ceiling issue was no big problem after all. The market kept on selling through after deal was passed.

volcanik said...

Carl I dont know what time frame you are seeing this as a "bull market correction". You must be looking at lifetime trendlines or something because this certainly is not just a correction. There is more blood to follow after today's red candle on all the charts. Today was NOT the low.

Adsense said...

hi carl
we are now into the aug 1 5th time frame for a low . i would feel more confifant had the market went up today instead of down .
my real reason for being here is to say thanks for the Lindsay link
and the book out . i have been rying to put it together for a few years and it is alot of work to find old info , im looking forward to reading the book . thanks again for brining attention to it .
last thought ill add .
i realise that you never agrred with the long term 10 plus year 3 peaks domed house pattern from 1996 to 2009 yet ill ask you this do you think points 5 6 7 8 9 10 are clean in 2010 on the dow ??
this sideways movement has lasted between 6 and 8 months and does not completely fit the bill of points 3 4 5 6 7 yet a break down to new lows now does give the impression of a point 8 9 10 of a larger 3 peaks domed house .
points 1 the lows in 2009 point 2
the lows in 2010 and point 3 can be feb or april 2011 top i know its not orthidox but worth consdiering since points 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 and 10 in 2009 and 2010 are not that clean.on the dow
thanks joe