Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Guesstimates on August 3, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market may well break the March 17 low at 1241.25 before it turns higher. Today's day session range estimate is 1240-1262. I expect to see a move above the 1400 level once this bull market correction is complete.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support is at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target at 1630 has been reached but there is no sign of a top. Next stop is 1750. Support is at 1520.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.


paul said...

Hi Carl, I'm curious what makes you so confident that we will see 1400? I'd love to see 1400 but the economic slowdown might become a recession and I'm not sure why some are expecting a 2nd half pickup.

Harry said...

Quoting John Murphy on 08/02/2011: "S&P 500 COMPLETES TOPPING PATTERN... This morning's message warned that the S&P 500 appeared in danger of completing a "head and shoulders" topping pattern. Today's action appears to have done just that. Today's 2.5% plunge pushed the S&P below its 200-day average and a "neckline" drawn under its March/June lows (in the heaviest trading in months). It also closed below its June intra-day low at 1258. Economically-sensitive market groups did even worse. Chart 8 shows the Industrials Sector SPDR (which includes transports) tumbling to the lowest level in eight months in heavy trading. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (Chart 9) lost 3.8% and fell below its 200-day line in heavy trading as well . No market group (except for precious metals) escaped the selling. It now appears that the stock market has completed a topping pattern that should lead to lower prices between now and the autumn."

Harry said...

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

Bill said...

As of yesterday the S&P had recorded the worst 7 days since 2008. Today is more of the same. The market is severely damaged. First support should be around 1220. A second level of support lies in the 1180. But right now the market is on a free fall with no support and looking to test new lows. And the problem with this is that a vicious cycle starts, a lower stock market slows the economy which in turn drives the stock market lower. Some shock and awe from the Fed can stop this, but barring QE3 this doesn't look good.

Anonymous said...

Bill, Shock treatment from the Fed is eventually going to kill the patient, of convulsions!

Moreover, political economists like Greenspan or Bernanke practice politics more than economics. Politics overtaking patriotism has ruined this country.

A better solution lies in cutting down the government to half its present size, and, of course, disband the Fed.

passer_by said...

nice move, huge volume, great spike.
Will see 1400 soon