Friday, August 05, 2011


Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".


vicsilver said...

Carl so far you have been consistantly wrong on your analysis and the market has been telling you that. The market keeps droping despite your bullish calls keep trying to catch a falling knife and one time out of a thousand you will be right. Good luck. Anyone who has listened to you has consistantly lost money since July,

siricor said...

Anyone, can take a look at someone's track record over a short period of time and find examples that can be criticized. However, why don't you try going back to when the market was crashing a few years ago and read his posts... he said for a few weeks we are about to see a HUGE RALLY, and he was right! There have been days when Carl has been off on his estimates but many more times he has been right, and, very accurate. In addition, the information is free, take what you want from it, if you were paying a hefty subscription fee then you maybe you could complain. I appreciate his efforts and will continue to welcome his OPINION.

Anonymous said...

Carl, you are absoultely right about your longer term analysis. Shorter term cycles are much harder to predict. The daily, weekly and monthly charts are all calling for an up cycle.

But, in the long run, top and bottom picking is just not good for trading. We need to wait for a safer buy signal.

Earlier, you used to tell us to ignore the news and even the indicators. But, lately, there appears to be too much focus on the bearish calls of others and even misinterpretation of the your own expertise of contrarian theories. We have had a long bull run and everyone was overly bullish. Contrarians would say goodbye to the bullishness after a long bullish run. How can you a contrarians by being bullish without a long downtrend first. What is going on?

Moreover, surveys need to be scientifically reliable, not just a random poll of a few talking heads or a few commentators on your blog.

pimaCanyon said...


Who says Carl is top or bottom picking? Is he posting his trades here? Without seeing his trades, we really can't say whether he is bottom picking or not.

It's true he does seem to have a bullish bias and usually gives the bull market the benefit of the doubt, but even in 2008 when the market tanked, Carl managed to make money that year.

Nilspirat said...

I don't find these magazine cover picks particularly objective. A serious approach would include the creation of some sort of index for stock market news reaching the cover of a selection of a series of magazines. Should be easy to backtest.

Anonymous said...

primaCanyon, be objective!

Who cares what Carl's trades or how much money he makes! We should be concerned only with our own personal trading.

Carl's "BUY BUY BUY" was spelled out quite clearly in one of his recent posts. Was this an "advice" to those who do not trade or do not even follow his blog? Also, are you saying that "advice" should only for others and advisers should not eat their own dog food?

If he you can't see Carl's frequent calls for the bottom, what can you see? Please advice!

Tom said...

"The Art of Contrarian Trading"?

You mean "The Art of Financial Suicide".

When are you gong to learn! said...

Siricor-I have to say your statement is completely wrong. This does not mean I think the markets are rallying and I do NOT think we are heading to 1400. But how can you honestly say Carl has been completely wrong when has yet to be wrong once since 2009?

THe indexes have indeed made higher highs after each massive fall. Yes Carl road those big moves down the entire time lower ing the line in sand, but in the end, he has been right, not wrong. Will this time be different? Maybe, the ducks are lined up and until they get oil into the 70's the Fed is on the sidelines.

This market has been blown up on speculation that Ben has created with his failed QE experiments. Now Ben and the rest of the wrold is seeing first hand, our stock market is like a 2 year old in a candy store-and the parents simply gave the kid more candy to stop him from screaming.

The kid has been trained to scream louder whenever he wants more candy. Ben has trained our speculative traders/hedge funds to scream louder (move down) if you want more QE.

So this market will be sold with every rally attempt as the kids don't like to be buying without knowing Ben is there to back them. This is was a mini bull market move that has been blown up with candy and speculation.

Unless Ben plans on showing the world that the 3rd time is indeed NOT a charm and launches yet another failed QE program, be careful following any technicals-wave determine a bottom...IF the streets really does start to believe Ben is gone forever. Right now, they still don't believe that. G-