In the e-minis today the initial drop from the early high at 1237.50 showed persistently high volume - normally a sign of continuation down. But once the even-higher volume reversal off of 1221.50 occurred the whole picture was of high volume but no net progress relative to this morning's low at 1220.25 and yesterday's close at 1226.75.
All in all, the evidence so far today is that the market is now on its way to above the 1260 level.
5 comments:
With all due respect (and I hope you're right about the imminent reversal) but it should be noted that we are approaching rollover day, when volume moves from the Sep to the Dec futures contracts. That day is tomorrow, the Thurs before quarterly expiration. And that may be having some effect both on volume and on volatility.
Thanks for your work.
AO
Adam,
Expiration is next week.
Cash S&P has been stopped out the last 3 times at its 50MA, which now is at 1266 or so. Hence it is not a big deal if S&P does get up there, but the big question is what happens thereafter - roll over once again, or continue that elusive bull run that Carl has been predicting for a while. My personal opinion, is the wash out does not happen till we get to 1170or lower. The sooner it happens, the better off it is to ride a rally for a change!
"the Thurs before quarterly expiration" is it Thursday tomorrow or Thursday next week?
Correction: should have written, "the Thursday of the week before expiration."
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