The main message is that there were many very strong bullish divergences at last week's 1136 low. This together with the profoundly bearish sentiment in the market and very high volume last week is strong evidence that this market is headed much higher over the coming months.
11 comments:
Dear President,
Dear Congress
Dear Fed
Dear Treasury
What Happened In USA is not a natural Disaster. It is perfectly Human made event, that has the actors that, unlike , Osama B, are very easy to identify and part from the ill gotten money, they decided BALUCHISTAN is bad for their bones and maybe kidney.
Ok here are the addressed to help.
1)Wall, Pine, Broad Street Manhattan New York. Please Include former dweller there Dear Paulsen.
2) Columbus Circle Manhattan, that is where all the rich bankers bought the big penthouses overlooking central park, while hiding loses in SIV.
3) Fifth Avenue Manhattan where most of the Hedge funds heads live,and got rich on illegal connections with Wall Street and Government.
4) Beverly Hills, Pine, Wilshire, all that drag. That is where many, who could not take the New York cold, went
5) Rating Agencies SP Moodies Fitch, those who rated uneatable, you can round them all up in Manhattan
6) Big Mortgage Banks and Buyers Fanny and Freddy managers and their bosses (sorry that would be you congress people, so close!)
7) Federal Reserve for the lack of oversight and mismanagement of our money
8) Local municipalities who did close their EYES to the bad mortgage practices as long as the money was flowing to their coffers, Yes, the are at the City Hall's all Across America.
9) And it might work wonder to make couple rounds at the White House that is in Washington to see if some people there wanted very much for FED to keep interest rates low, to finance the war of choice and poor execution.
10) Please visit CNBC,FOX, BLOOMBERG. Cavuto Never said Mortgages were bad, as long as he could "BLAME" prosperity on Dear Bush. CNBC never stopped cheering the housing recovery , even today! And Yes, Dear Bloomberg said "we are all to blame". No, Dear Bloomberg some of us are to blame more for never editorialising about the bad staff before it has blown up in our faces. And for treating the FED like they were gods and never asking questions that may help us understand why are they destroying the country. And Yes, totally forgot that you are in biggest of those CITY Halls!
11) Frankly I did not want to leave out our nice friends in DALLAS, HOUSTON, AUSTIN ( only friends of DUBYA) and all around, who were very glad to see DUBYA go to war and bring the OIL to 150
Boy, before even completing the list, I realised these are all SOPITALISTS! Hallelujah!
For Every Government Is SOPITALIST, except the biggest ones of them are succesfull reaching stage of EMPIRE of DEATH, sorry DEBT or is it THEFTH, well, your choice.
Well, if I think some more address that are handy, I will send them to you Dear Dignitaries.
Boris
Carl,
One issue is that the credit markets are so cheap right now that equities although cheap may not be the investment of first choice. Not to say I'm bearish.
Hi Carl
I think there is something wrong (am I allowed to use that term? Inconsitent would be better) with your spx, usd jpy, eur usd forecasts as a whole.
From your guestimates, you are forecasting a eur jpy rate of something like 134 (99.5 x 1.35) at the same time as stocks much higher. I find this unlikely.
Eur jpy has been a classic symbol of risk and leverage. If you expect eur jpy so much lower, you are unikely to be right on stocks and vice versa.
I believe you will be right on stocks in the medium terms but wrong on stocks in the long term. We are likely to see a correction of a larger bear market.
Since I trade currencies more than stocks, these other numbers are important to me. I believe it is your eur usd number which will be wrong but that is just my opinion
Best wishes as always
Catherine
I agree with you on bonds . Not sure about gold.
Catherine
Today Mr. Doom & Gloom, Bill Cara is now saying this:
" Over-all, the market will appear range-bound between 10000 and 15000 for several years, I believe. But it is what it is; we still need to approach trading with a primary bullish or bearish perspective before we can begin to work on strategies and tactics. This past two weeks and this weekend in particular, I laid out my thinking. I am now a Bull."
Carl we are fast approaching the 1190 level. I have 1199 as the .5 fib retrace of the rise from 1133 to 1265. I am bidding to enter long, my stop will be the 1184 level, which is the .618 retrace fib.
Appreciate all your posts, keep up the nice work.
Carl, please help me understand why the 11 Aug high and flanking highs aren't a head-and-shoulders pattern.
Very much am enjoying your blog; please keep it going.
Your public charts to my eye seem to be targeting 1170-1172 area below the 1190 you mention in your guessimate today?
Dear 1:37 pm:
Those targets date from the first week of September.
Dear rcks.
using the ES futures, with 1136.25 as the low and 1291.25 as the high (reached Friday morning) then the Fibs are as follows:
50% 1213
61.8% 1195
76.4% 1172
if fib's are of any use, then we shd be heading towards 1172 real soon.
Catherine has a good point about EURJPY and other blogs say the same thing
www.financialtraders.blogspot.com
www.autofx.blogspot.com
www.marketkarma.blogspot.com
www.annenaim81.blogspot.com/
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