Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Guesstimates on September 23, 2008

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures:  There will probably be high volatility around 10am, the time Bernanke testifies before congress today. I think the e-minis will probably make it down to 1190 but from there the market should begin a rally to the 1300 level. The current rally should carry the S&P up to1400 during the next few months and much higher than that next year. 

QQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 40.50 and then start a move up to 45.00.   

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop has begun in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is now at 149.40. 

Dollar-Yen: Resistance is at 108.50 and I think the market is headed for 98.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Crude has resistance at 110.00. Next downside target is 75.  

GLD - December Gold: Gold still has resistance at 935, but my guess now is that Thursday’s 925 high marked the end of the rally. I think gold will soon drop to 600. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1330. Next downside target is 900.   

Google: I am not very sure about Google’ technical position. I still think it has a good shot at 375 before it resumes its long term bullish trend.   

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

You're the only one in America that i read the comments about "his" market. Hi from Italy

Anonymous said...

I am listening to these Congressional hearings and if I wasn't so concerned about systemic risk I would be laughing quite loudly. Congress won't let Treasury or Fed act without their oversight - but where was their oversight in the past? Except for an ineffective few no one in Congress stepped up, yet now they demand oversight. They are elequently speaking about need for accountability and may have practiced their speeches in front of a mirror. Thats where it should have dawned on them they are part and parcel of the problem too. It would be hystericall funny if it were not so potentially tradgic. Some of them are claiming, again a little late, they need to speak for the tax payer. Just whose savings, home equity, retirement accounts and businesses and jobs do they think are going to get hosed alot worse and alot quicker if we have systemic problems? As usual, as a class, they do not get it, and won't listen to the people who do. Funny but tragic.

Anonymous said...

Carl:

Your support at 1190 is now broken ... the market looks weak here 1160-1175 is my target.

Thx
Rico
Toronto

Anonymous said...

Carl,
I'm surprised that ypu didn't jump on those 90's.
Carlos

Anonymous said...

Sorta surprised that every blog site and such is trying to convince me that this is not a bailout.

Keep trying, its not working. Some of us are a bit wiser. Perhaps stick to just doing what you do well and that is playing the markets? I certainly dont come here to try and be persuaded which is exactly the silly thing you are doing Carl. Sorry... its the truth..