Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Running For The Exits
Here are today's front pages from The New York Times and the Chicago Tribune. Investors are scared and running for the exits. Headlines like these generally appear on or a day or two before the day of an important low.
Carl, I read your blog every day and I've learned a lot from you. I am from Romania, and even if our country is very far from USA, the romanian stock market is very influenced by the international crisis (the indices dropped 70% in the last 12 months even if our GDP's growth is 8%/year).So keep up the good work that you do because a lot of people consider your posts usefull. Sorry for my eventual spelling mistakes. Bye!
11:21 is right. I like Carl's blog, and personal attacks are never warranted--but Carl, I think it would be helpful if you provided some indication of why you think these headlines will be any different from the many other similar headlines you've posted since a year ago. Hussman penned a useful piece on this subject a while ago, when Newsweek wrote the "Road to Recession" cover and "contrarian"-minded thinkers claimed this was a sign that the recession would never come and it was time to buy stocks. Hussman wrote that headlines like these are only useful AFTER a substantial decline. At this point I think the decline has been substantial, and so maybe headlines are becoming more useful at this stage--but you've never indicated that you felt that prior headlines were any less valid than the ones you're posting today. And some acknowledgment that you've been wrong on these covers so far would boost your credibility in my opinion. That said, I see no reason why you should need to care about your credibility--you provide a service to all of us, and the bottom line is you deserve to be thanked for that, regardless of the predictive accuracy of your posts!
Here are today's front pages from The New York Times and the Chicago Tribune. Investors are scared and running for the exits. Headlines like these generally appear on or a day or two before the day of an important low.
8 comments:
Carl,
Your comment indicates that you think the low is yet to come. Do I interpret you correctly?
9.21 - there's no need to insult Carl or anyone, esp behind anonymity.
You don't have to read the blog - you can just leave!
Gut Instinct’s Surprising Role in Math
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/science/16angi.html?em
This nytimes article might partially explain why some traders are "ES animals" or, alternatively, just "idiots."
Solrac
(long spy call options)
Carl, I read your blog every day and I've learned a lot from you. I am from Romania, and even if our country is very far from USA, the romanian stock market is very influenced by the international crisis (the indices dropped 70% in the last 12 months even if our GDP's growth is 8%/year).So keep up the good work that you do because a lot of people consider your posts usefull. Sorry for my eventual spelling mistakes. Bye!
Name callers are likely the least intelligent people out there.
Carl, bless you and your thick skin to put up with them.
"another" Carl
keep up the Stubborn-ness Carl!
OK, we'll give you your 4-500 point bounce, then back down HARD
the next 'Important Low' is at 9500 djia
Carl:
Seriously, you have been pulling out negative newspaper stories since 13,800.
11:21 is right. I like Carl's blog, and personal attacks are never warranted--but Carl, I think it would be helpful if you provided some indication of why you think these headlines will be any different from the many other similar headlines you've posted since a year ago. Hussman penned a useful piece on this subject a while ago, when Newsweek wrote the "Road to Recession" cover and "contrarian"-minded thinkers claimed this was a sign that the recession would never come and it was time to buy stocks. Hussman wrote that headlines like these are only useful AFTER a substantial decline. At this point I think the decline has been substantial, and so maybe headlines are becoming more useful at this stage--but you've never indicated that you felt that prior headlines were any less valid than the ones you're posting today. And some acknowledgment that you've been wrong on these covers so far would boost your credibility in my opinion. That said, I see no reason why you should need to care about your credibility--you provide a service to all of us, and the bottom line is you deserve to be thanked for that, regardless of the predictive accuracy of your posts!
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