Tuesday, September 30, 2008
The Verdict Is In!
I just finished counting the negative vs. positive comments on my last four market related posts. The verdict is in! A total of 24 comments express the view that I am an idiot and/or that the market is going much lower, 3 were at best mildly supportive of my views, and the rest did not take one side or the other. So my "Comments" indicator shows 89% bearishness. Hmmm.......
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20 comments:
"Comments" indicator shows 89% bearishness. Hmmm.......
And how many times have we heard that before?-only to be sunk by another failed rally.
Hope springs eternal,eh Carl?
You will be right one day of course
regards
Rod
cheers & thanks Carl,
I still owe you some vintage port.
Solrac
don't want to harm bearish consensus..but my 45 years of trading says you are completely correct in being bullish here..
god morning. it is late. i am a german. this reaktion is normal. everyone has to go long this morning.
i think, it is not the bottem. he comes, but much later this year. perhaps dezember.
thank you for the blog.
wolf
Carl,
You're on such flimsy ground. Magazine covers work great as contrary indicators for spotting low for corrections in bull markets but the environment has changed. Surely you must be starting to realise that! In a bear market (or a bull market for that matter) sentiment should be taken at face value. So I'm upping your bearish comments to 90%. But regardless, I still think the S+P is going to 800!
Best Wishes,
Paul
England
Carl: Ok, so what are you waiting for? I already bought my spy calls. what is your likely entry point for the ES today?
Thanks,
Tom K
Carl,
I´m seing a big disconect between your long term views & economics.
Seems to be that we are in the worst crisis since great depression.
And you are calling for a bottom with just twenty something market correction & PER above 20 ? Show us one sample of that on market's history !
The covers are maybe telling a different tape: if this is how they look now, can you imagine how they look like at the bottom ?
We´ll have nice bounces anyway(specially if the government starts to print dollar bills !)
Best regards,
Alex
If the shoe fits~
My bet is Carl will wait for a pullback and not chase things. Some backing and filling is warranted if indeed yesterdays low was the bottom (or a bottom). The closer price gets to that low, the lower the risk of putting on a long trade, since one knows where to get "off the train", if wrong.
DE
The thing that I find the most amazing is how few people realize that we are in a period of margin contraction. How long does one think an economy built on the consumer being 70% of GDP can actually grow and prosper. As an American I realize that the majority of things that we as Americans purchase we can do without. We are simply reverting back to the norm of working, saving, and then buying what you need or want. We have been buying now and paying later for too long...this is not the end of the world but there is very little in the way of a catalyst(only hope is left) to push us to new highs.
the powers that be have done all they can do to prop up this market...lied to us, change the rules, and now they want to socialize the losses. trickle down economics doesn't work...if you want to help the banks then stop the foreclosures and stop the decreasing property values. The banks can rework any loan on their books but they are unwilling to do so. Make them rework the loans before any bailout is even discussed.
long term chart looks like 1036 is possible
Dear kleenup2:
Just how do you propose to stop decreasing property values? Do you guys not realized that this housing bubble will be unmatched in our lifetime? It is absolutely unimaginable how high prices went without an equal increase in household income! And the quality of the houses in America + Canada is abhorrent ... they're basically cardboard boxes with plaster or plastic siding on them.
You know what. It will be actually good for you guys not to have so much credit available ... maybe this way you will save for things before buying that 5 litre Ford Mustang that is built using 1960's technology.
Good Luck and more importantly, good sense!
Rick B
Carl! What's wrong with you? Are you on some kind of mind altering drug? Your mind seems to be stuck in some kind of a loop. You don't even consider the possibility that you might be a little delusional. The market has been in a bear market since Oct 2007 and like the delusional and dartboard bottom pickers of the last bear market, you've been fighting it all the way down. Now we are due for a rally very soon but my goodness carl.There are so many other non-biased traders out there who could tell you what's going on without all this "sentiment" psychology mumbo jumbo that's at best just a secodary confirmation of good primary technical work. Don't you think? Maybe you shoud find a different methodology for interpreting market action instead of having to rely on this "sentiment" nonsense you rely so heavily on because I think it's making you look a little "loopy" if you know what I mean. C'mon Carl. You're losing credibility like a Bush doing a jig on the white house steps. I think there's hope for you still. Maybe Elliotwave might serve you better orsome other type of cycle work. How about astrology? Some great astrological services like Rosecast are nothing short of amazing. I prefer ST cycle work in combination with proprietary indicators and a basic knowledge of EW Patterns. much more efficient than sentiment which I'm sure you'll admit is a bit like hoping or crossing your fingers. I mean what happens if the magazine covers aren't bearish enough? Then what? I mean there are too many ways to interpret especially if you carry a bias. See that's the problem. With a soft science like sentiment you ignore the perception of the one reading that sentiment. Too many variables to consider here especially when they are way out of your control. Price action is work enough let alone trying to read someone's mind on top of it. Anyway Carl...I hope you reconsider your strategy because I don't think it's coducive to making substantial high probability predicyions.
chow
Carl,
Would 11 months be the longest Alphier "interim crash"? Is that interpretation for this period still plausible, based on past examples?
Carl;
I think you're right on. I love your analysis. It's a sea of negativity out here. It's good to have clear voices to listen to above the din.
Buy when everyone is afraid. Cheers.
=^.^=
No bottom until gold = spx @ 1050
hey carl
anyone who has guts to post there thought on a market deserves some respect even if there wrong , so while i think it shows integrity on your part to allow those to post there angry hateful posts
calling you an idiot only shows
there lack of integrity and further shows there lack of understanding about the stock market , i will at times agree as well as disagree with you and ill explain my reasons when i do .
what i have noti9ced over the years is bearish personalities are almost like a religion . i would think that many bears would also make the case that at one point in our life we actually suddenly start getting younger , a train moving at 60 mph heading towards san francisco will actually end up in florida . just keep doing what you do carl .my own belief in my own cycles still call for a top
in mid 2010 and ill admit it has been a tough market this year yet my bearish hedges saved me .
we still have to be patiant in this market though pretty much the bear story is failing there take is the dollar will tank which is wrong gold will go up which is wrong and oil the wild card will go above 200 , well gold is well off its highs oil is in a counter trend bounce and the dollar is getting stronger . so the typical bear story is failing yet there faith is there right just because
no body states why . just pick a number and stick to it and forget the data that unfolds which changes the story along the way .
how ever the down trend and not yet become an uptrend in the over all stock market the front page covers have not worked in a meaningfull way , the bullish divergences have worked to some degree yet todays rally just like yesterdays drop cannot be caused by short selling or short covering since many stocks are not being shorted right now .
good luck carl
joe
Rick B,
I fully understand the banking crisis as it is called(my wife is a VP at Bank of America here in Charlotte, NC). But what many people don't realize is that banks count the equity in your home as profit...as your equity decreases so does their profits. The writedowns are not due to foreclosures but due to falling property values. It is a vicious cycle but my point is that helping homeowners rework their loans will definitely help the banks but helping the banks is not a guarantee that homeowners will be helped. None of the measures to date...interest rate reductions, bailouts, liquidity injections, short sell bans, etc have kept the market from making new lows because the problem is far worse than they are willing to admit. We will revert back to the mean the only question is how long do they think they can prolong the inevitable.
Yo mama:
Thanks for another content-free comment. Those who are interested in facts instead of flame should see this post:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2008/09/right-and-wrong.html
Sheeeeesh Carl. nobody's questioning your ability to make profits. Just your ability to read markets IT - LT. Stop making worthless probabilities and concentrate short term. However, if short term then you are surrounded by a very astute company of daytraders that will clean your clock.
maxwell duncan Todd
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