However, whether I'm right about this or not, I still think we are going to see a 1175 print before any multi-week rally can start. I am also sticking by my longer term view that this bear market is nearly over.
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
What's Next?
Today's price action turned out to be even weaker than I had expected. Perversely, this tells me that we are likely to stay in this 1216-1282 trading range for at least a few more days. Tomorrow we will probably see some early weakness, perhaps enough to send the market down into the 1200-1215 range, but then I think we shall see another big rally which should last a few days and may even approach or take out Monday's high at 1282.
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8 comments:
What's up with this Lehman drop of around 40% today???? Possibly another shoe to drop?? I think that was the catalyst for todays suction down. JMHO, kind regards, Janet
CARL, I respect and appreciate what your doing here but come on dude, you have been forecasting a bottom since last summer...
thanks carl, great trading
one of these times ill catch a post in time to join you...thx lib,il
POINT 12 today
now POSSIBLY point 13 tomorrow
Hi,
New to your blog, but it would be great if you could post a screenshot of the es or any other future you trade as you make the call. Would help alot with pattern recognition. Thanks!
Glad to see you have turned to be more "flexible" in your trades.
You have done well since then.
We tend to forget sometimes there are two ways to make money in this market, the ebb and flow. One must be accomodative.
To call for bonds to go to 123, when at the same time looking for a SP rally, in my camp, never made sense. Now you are more in sych with, "finally", some inter-market analysis? You should do more.
Nice trading!
Carl, I very much agree with your analysis. Only thing is I think the rally may top out around 1260 rather than making it all the way up to 1282 as you have suggested. 1172 is a very big retracement level and I also feel reaching it could be the impetus for a larger rally into year end.
All the best,
Paul
I have no real opinion here as to the next 20 points, and yes a rally might be in the offing.
'Bear market nearly over' - I totally disagree with this statement. I think house prices (the leader) and going to fall 50% in UK, Ireland, Spain, Aust, NZ and 35-40% in US. House prices move in 10 year cycles, not 6 months. I expect a flattening out in 2-3 year and then another 10 years where nothing happenes like Japan , the lost decade.
If thedow went to 5000-6000 over the next 3 years, it would not surprise me.
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