Carl- this is a personal message to you.. A few weeks ago I was a bit harsh on you with some of my comments and I realize now that was because I didnt follow you long enough to really understand your style, how you write, how you trade.. After watching you the last few weeks? I honestly have to apologize and thank you for your work.. I see now that you are not a perma anything, you trade what you see and think, but most of all you accept mistakes and greet a new day which is the true tell tale of a successfull trader. Thanks for sharing,a nd sorry to be so critical when in fact I realize now I simply didnt know you enough when making the comments.
Thanks for all you share, ok? A true trader also lets things roll off their back which is im sure another thing your good at : 0
Today is the first day the 2yr swap spread has tightened down to 101 basis pts during the past 12months and does break the highs of 106.5 basis points seen during the spikes of Nov/Dec2007 and Mar2008. The next support on this measure is approximately 90 bps. Lets see how bullish this will be for equities or has the focus truly changed from wall street to main street. Current: 2yr swap sprd = 102.25 and SP500 cash 963.5 as of 1:55 pm.
Also notice the 2y / 10y tsy yield spread is tightening. Is now 213 bps from 240 bps last week. For this one, watch for a break thru 207 - 210 bps zone. Careful on the short spu's as tsy's and swap sprds moving against you. Final hour for equities should be interesting. (note that VIX is NOT moving higher with lower share prices).
8 comments:
I admire your courage Carl. I am reluctant to turn uber-bearish until we break yesterday morning's low around 943.
EDS
If the downside is back as being the path of least resistance then any bounces need to be hold below the 970 level.
my friend, you need a break!
sincerely,
spasiklas
Carl- this is a personal message to you.. A few weeks ago I was a bit harsh on you with some of my comments and I realize now that was because I didnt follow you long enough to really understand your style, how you write, how you trade.. After watching you the last few weeks? I honestly have to apologize and thank you for your work.. I see now that you are not a perma anything, you trade what you see and think, but most of all you accept mistakes and greet a new day which is the true tell tale of a successfull trader. Thanks for sharing,a nd sorry to be so critical when in fact I realize now I simply didnt know you enough when making the comments.
Thanks for all you share, ok? A true trader also lets things roll off their back which is im sure another thing your good at : 0
Paul
Today is the first day the 2yr swap spread has tightened down to 101 basis pts during the past 12months and does break the highs of 106.5 basis points seen during the spikes of Nov/Dec2007 and Mar2008. The next support on this measure is approximately 90 bps. Lets see how bullish this will be for equities or has the focus truly changed from wall street to main street. Current: 2yr swap sprd = 102.25 and SP500 cash 963.5 as of 1:55 pm.
SP continues to probe the high 960's. A break of 970 and I think we have a shot at testing the morning highs.
But more likely that we've basically seen both the high and low of the day.
EDS
Carl me think we've seen the low of the day
Also notice the 2y / 10y tsy yield spread is tightening. Is now 213 bps from 240 bps last week. For this one, watch for a break thru 207 - 210 bps zone. Careful on the short spu's as tsy's and swap sprds moving against you. Final hour for equities should be interesting. (note that VIX is NOT moving higher with lower share prices).
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